1 month ago
The €100,000 Monster is back on Fanteam, ladies and gentlemen, amidst all your season-long double-gameweek worries. Let's forget about the long-term and focus on the weekend's slate which consists of nine English Premier League matches.
|Home||Away||1||X||2||CS H||CS A||>2.5 H||>2.5 A|
The budget is set at 105 mln. for this slate, just like last week. Here are the stacks that I believe offer value either in terms of value, captaincy considerations or differential merits.
Brighton will be traveling to Leeds, who many will be doubling and tripling up on given their goal heroics this season. The problem I have with Leeds' assets this week is their price and, as always, difficulty in nailing down who delivers apart from Bamford.
Brighton started to allow more xGC compared to the start of the campaign (8.97 in their last 6) but we are more interested in Leeds defensive form, which is as it were at the start of the season - rather woeful. With 35.42 xG, only one team - West Brom - have conceded more this campaign. 252 shots conceded (3rd worst) is also nothing to brag about. Brighton will have their chances and the price is just right for a single return or more.
Maupay leads the team in shots (9) across the last 6, big chances (3) and xG (1.84). He is also on penalties.
Trossard has fired 8 shots in the same timeframe and leads the team with 16 chances created, which is 7 more than March in 2nd. He has also taken 19 corners.
In the likely absence of Ings, who had tested COVID-positive earlier this week, Adams will lead the line having been declared fully fit after his head injury. Since gw 13 onward, he leads the team in shots on target/90 with 1.59. He is also on 0.56 xA/90 which are good numbers for a low-scoring Southampton side.
Walcott, who might find himself playing in the OOP forward role once again, may latch onto his partner’s passes. He is 2nd in terms of shots/90 with 1.30 and leads the team with 1.08 key passes/90.
The duo leads the team in xGI/90 with 0.52 and 0.29 respectively. I disagree with the bookie on this one, giving Southampton only a 19% of walking away with a win. It will be more tightly-contested than that despite Leicester's solid defensive numbers lately.
Burnley have conceded 1.95 xGC in their last 3 away games while West Ham have been rather creative on home soil with 1.61 xG and 13 shots on average in their last 3 home outings. And while Sean Dyche’s troops are a hard nut to crack for anyone outside top-6, I will take my chances with Antonio, who is back after injury and in line to start upfront with Haller dispatched to Ajax Amsterdam. We all remember how explosive and dangerous the English winger-turned-striker can be.
As for the second pick, it’s a close one between Soucek and Fornals. I am going for Fornals’ creativity since Soucek is a set-piece threat mostly, and this is the area Dyches got under control. Burnley are ranked 2nd best for shots allowed after set-pieces with 0.5 per game on average.
Fornals leads the team from gameweek 13 on with 1.69 shots/90 minutes and is 2nd only to right wing-back Coufal in chances created with 0.99/90 minutes. He can both create and finish, and I am waiting for a little spark of creativity against a deep-lying defense.
De Bruyne is City’s best player right here right now and it won’t likely change anytime soon bar injuries. From gameweek 13 on, he is averaging 3.43 key passes per 90 minutes, 0.59 xA/90 and 3.63 shots/90. He leads the team in these metrics, has been playing as an OOP forward and is on all set-pieces. He has assisted 3 times and scored once in this timeframe
Foden is another in-form player thriving in the winger role with 2 goals and an assist in his last 5. Despite playing only 245 minutes since gw13, he is not far behind KdB in shots/90 with 2.57 and xA with 0.32/90. He has created 8 chances in this timeframe as well, which equals 2.94/90.
As to the third person to complete the stack, I would be choosing between Sterling and Gundogan just in case Pep refuses to select a fit Jesus again. Mind you, City players will highly-owned this week, so if you opt for the Cityzens, complete your team with differential players.
Arsenal have been putting okay defensive numbers recently conceding 1 xGC per game in their last six. What further increases their appeal is the quality of their opponents’attack. Newcastle have fired just 8 shots/90 minutes in their last 3 away games and have scored only 4 goals (5.06 xG) in their last 6 games. If Arsenal manage to close down Magpies’ main threat - Wilson, they might walk away with another clean sheet from this one.
Bellerin is the best attacking-minded option from fullback in the likely absence of Tierney. Holding as averaging 0.76 shots/90 and 0.41 headed attempts/90 minutes.
Arsenal are given a 45% to keep a clean sheet.
Chelsea seem to have lost their defensive swagger of late with 61 shots, 11 big chances and 7.95 xGC allowed in their last six. They have played against higher-flying opponents then Fulham in these games, of course, but I think Fulham can breach the Blues at least once — and we can’t ask for more of players at this price range, tru enablers.
Lookman has averaged 2.78 shots per 90 since gw 13 and 0.46 xG/90 - team’s highest in that time frame. He will be rested and ready to go this weekend looking to get into the opponent’s box where he is averaging 4.95 touches/90 minutes. He’s got creativity as well, with 2.69 chances created per game.
Cavaleiro is not far behind with 1.69 shots/90 and 1.35 chances created/90. He might be less focused on finishing off attacks if Mitrovic starts, but still a decent differential pick.
Sheffield have found it hard enough to break down Newcastle, I think they have very little hope against a side of a different quality altogether. Reguillon has averages 1.4 shots/90 from gw 13 and 0.7 chances created/90. He is looking to get into the box and will give Bogle a hard time for sure.
One department Aurier beats the Spaniard in the last six gameweeks is crosses/90 minutes with 4.43 to 3.15. Sheffield are conceding too many headers this season (2.56 per game) and Kane can always find himself in a perfect spot after a cross.
Spurs are given a 45% to keep a clean sheet.
Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch mostly on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2000 tournaments played and a 40% ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.