FanTeam

4 months ago

A Deep Dive Into FanTeam Scoring Update: Midfielders & Forwards

There is less than a month until another phenomenal English Premier Leaguer season-long game with a €1,150,000 prize pool kicks off on FanTeam. We have to come fully armed if we are to have any chance of success, so today we will talk about important things that will affect how you build your team for this season's game. Several scoring changes have been introduced on the platform recently and with EURO 2020 done and dusted, we finally have an opportunity to have an in-depth look at what has changed and how we can use it to our advantage. In the second part of the series, we will be focusing on midfielders & forwards.


Midfielders

First of all, I want to point out that midfielders & forwards are affected much less by the scoring changes than defenders.

Overall Δ is positive for the most part because shots on target are more influenced by the scoring changes compared to impact points.

Midfielders and Forwards get 0.4 pts for each shot on target

Read more: FanTeam Scoring Changes Explained

  • Old Pts — overall points with impact equal +1.0 or -1.0 and without shots on target

  • New Pts — overall points with impact equal +0.3 or -0.3 and shots on target

  • New/Old — a ratio of the New Pts to the Old Pts

  • Δ Impact — average 'impact' points difference between the old and the new system among defenders from one club

  • Δ Shots OT — average 'shots on target' points among defenders from one club

  • Overall Δ — Δ Impact + Δ Shots OT

You can see there is just one club with negative Δ of points (I ignore MUN, LIV, CHE & LEI since their numbers are really close to 0.0). It's Man City and it's just -5.1 on average for each midfielder from this club. We can't avoid premium assets from top-clubs like Man City just because of those insignificant changes.

As it seems to me, current scoring rules still make us go for premium attacking players while picking players from underdogs becomes more viable. The game is becoming more diverse and I find it really great. Now we can add anyone who's playing well to our watchlist even if his team sucks. 

Let's have a more detailed look at shots on target for midfielders.

  • Δ SoT — points for shots on target (+0.4 for each)

  • Δ Impact — average 'impact' points difference between the old and the new system

  • % SoT — a ratio of the points for 'Shots on target' to the overall points

  • % Goal — a ratio of the points for 'Goal' to the overall points

  • % Assist — a ratio of the points for 'Assist' to the overall points

  • % CS — a ratio of the points for 'Clean Sheet' to the overall points

  • % 90Mins — a ratio of the points for 'Full matches' to the overall points

We see here that for premium midfielders like Salah and Bruno Fernandes points for shots on target would total to 2.5 additional goals or 4 assists. It's a tangible indicator. And there's also just two with a negative points difference from top 11 in terms of shots on target.

The most affected midfielders by scoring changes are defensive midfielders: Rodri, Thiago, Lo Celso, Fernandinho, Matic, Elneny, Ndidi, Jorginho, Fabinho. Their overall points would be decreased by 3-7%. Bernardo Silva, Gundogan, Smith-Rowe and Hudson-Odoi are the only attacking-minded players who would be affected by scoring changes as much (5-8%).

At the same time, we can see that SoT points wouldn't contribute much to midfielders' overall point count. El Ghazi's result (7.2%) is the best among midfielders. So SoT points for midfielders look equal to Clean Sheet points and still less valuable than Full match points.

Conclusion: our perception of premium players can't change because of impact changes. We still must pick them, and we can pay more attention to those who attempt to score a lot. Players with solid shooting numbers (and full-time points as well) from average teams and underdogs can offer us a great value now, because we don't care about their team's results anymore and their prices aren't huge usually. It makes little sense to overestimate SoT %, but we'd better track those who fire away plenty of shots (not shots on target, because it's pretty random) every match.
 

Forwards

Read more: Shots on Target Benefactors on Fanteam

  • Old Pts — overall points with impact equal +1.0 or -1.0 and without shots on target

  • New Pts — overall points with impact equal +0.3 or -0.3 and shots on target

  • New/Old — a ratio of the New Pts to the Old Pts

  • Δ Impact — average 'impact' points difference between the old and the new system among defenders from one club

  • Δ Shots OT — average 'shots on target' points among defenders from one club

  • Overall Δ — Δ Impact + Δ Shots OT

We've noticed that SHU, FUL and WBA benefit the most from the scoring changes when it comes goalkeepers, defenders and midfielders. Boom. We can see an absolutely different scenario for strikers, because there are just SHU from underdogs & AVL with SOU on top of the rating. Watkins, Kane, Ings, Adams, Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison attempted to score a lot last season.

Each defender would get 1.9 more points on average because of scoring changes. Each midfielder would get 3.0 more points on average. But each forward would get 6.2 more points on average. So, we understand that shots on target matter a lot for strikers. And they have become the position most affected by the new rules in a positive way.

  • Δ SoT — points for shots on target (+0.4 for each)

  • Δ Impact — average 'impact' points difference between the old and the new system

  • % SoT — a ratio of the points for 'Shots on target' to the overall points

  • % Goal — a ratio of the points for 'Goal' to the overall points

  • % Assist — a ratio of the points for 'Assist' to the overall points

  • % CS — a ratio of the points for 'Clean Sheet' to the overall points

  • % 90Mins — a ratio of the points for 'Full matches' to the overall points

Δ SoT points for strikers from top 10 rating above equal 2.5 to 4 additional goals or 3 to 4 additional assists. Keep it in mind.

Gabriel Jesus, with 7 shots on target (with the exception of goals), is the only forward who wouldn't be affected by scoring changes among all strikers. It's understandable, because Brazilian has some obvious problems with scoring goals. Everyone else would win some points with new rules and even despite losing some impact points. Each striker's points would be increased by approximately 6.0%. Wood would get the highest points with new rules among all strikers.

Even with this in mind, we see that shots on target still matter less than full matches for strikers. There are 7 of 42 strikers with more SoT% than 90Mins% and just 3 of them have had regular place in the main squad and have scored more than 50 pts for season:

• Martial (MUN, 7.5% SoT vs 5.8% FT)
Rodrigo (LEE, 5.4% SoT vs 4.9% FT)
• D. Jota (LIV, 8.7% SoT vs 6.4% FT)

Conclusion: we have to be very mindful picking strikers because they are under the greatest influence after scoring rules changes. It makes much sense to find mid-priced and valuable strikers with settled place in the main squad, ideally with a good attacking level of play. Now we can not get distracted by the impact influence and don't think how often each team loses. If some striker's team loses 1-5, but their forward scores the only goal and has a couple of shots on target, it's more than acceptable for us. I think 3 strikers for a season-long tournament has to be our main priority now because new rules have balanced the difference between midfielders and strikers in favour of the latter.

That's all for my FanTeam Scoring Update analysis. The new season is coming very soon, so I would like to congratulate all of you with it and wish you good luck!

Montafly
Author

Montafly

Matvey, also known as Montafly is a big fantasy fan, Excel master and music lover who likes making useful spreadsheets and digging up interesting statistics for fantasy games. He has been playing DFS since 2019 on FanTeam and for 10 years on FPL. FanTeam's 2019 Winter Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. FanTeam's 2021 Spring Championship of Fantasy Football finalist and prize-winner. 38th in FanTeam EURO 2020 £1M Game