Bundesliga Fantasy

2 weeks ago

Bundesliga Fantasy Tips: FanTeam Monster, May 16

Bundesliga fantasy tips are here as all eyes are set on German football action this weekend! The German top-flier will be the first major sports (not only football) league back from its Covid-19 break. FanTeam rewards us with a sensational €50,000 prize pool to celebrate the return of world-class football. With this being a new league where daily fantasy experts haven't set foot in yet, this is your chance to grab €10,000. The words of wisdom and puns are provided by 'nevermind721', a top dfs-player hailing from Germany, with more than 10k tournaments under his belt. Football is back, let's celebrate!

 

OUTBREAK of the Week

Premium Picks

In order to have a shot at 10.000€ for the winner, you need to nail your captain selection. Basically, he needs to break out like Covid-19 (sorry, too early?). There is no need to introduce the Lewandowskis and Haalands of this world, that’s why I will stick with two alternative recommendations:

In Lewandowskis shadow, Timo Werner (Leipzig, 14.0m) has had an incredible season. If you extrapolate his 21 goals in 25 games, it would amount to 29 goals over the full season. Only Lewandowski (2016) and Aubameyang (2017) scored more than that in the last 40 years (!). With many people focusing on the big names like Bayern and Dortmund, Werner could be a nice differential captain in a relatively easy matchup.

Leipzig are 75% favorites to win against Freiburg this weekend.

If you want to ride with Bayern though, you have to consider Kingsley Coman (Munich, 11.8m). Contrary to his counterpart on the other side of the pitch, Gnabry, he is listed as a midfielder on FanTeam. This guarantees sweet extra points for goals and clean sheets, with both seemingly realistic.

Coman is back from an injury — now it is his main competitor Coutinho having to sit out injured, assumingly cementing Coman’s spot in the starting eleven. Don’t be fooled by his mere 2 goals and 2 assists this season. In expected goals and assists, he sits at 0.60xGI per 90 minutes. Also, in terms of big chances created per 90, he’s a top-10 player in the league.

 

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH of the Week

Value Picks

Whilst we want to stop exponential growth in terms of Covid-19, we want to reach exponential growth with our bankroll (and surely not flatten THIS curve). To achieve this, choosing the right value picks is crucial.

Mainz’s Robin Quaison (Mainz, 7.6m) is as hit-and-miss as it gets. In the last 10 games, he scored a hattrick not once, but twice (!). Both hattricks were achieved away and fittingly enough, Mainz is due to play in Cologne for what is expected to be a rather open and balanced match. This high scoring potential obviously is very much endorsed by us DFS-players. If you don’t select him in a few of your lineups, you might be left out in the rain if it’s one of those days for him.

Another player due for a balanced matchup is Augsburg’s Philipp Max (Augsburg, 7.9m). He takes all set-pieces for Augsburg. This includes corners, direct freekicks, and indirect freekicks, which obviously boosts his scoring potential. With a stunning 7 goals and 5 assists thus far this campaign, he has already proven he can make the best use of it. 28 of his dead-ball situations led to scoring chances, which is among the best in the league. Max might even be on pens after scoring Augsburg’s last one against Hoffenheim.

Monitor Augsburg’s lineup closely, if he plays as left-back, his upside obviously takes a hit.

CONTAGIOUS STACK of the Week

On FanTeam, we obviously try to make our picks contagious to each other (i.e., stacking). This week, picking a stack from Dusseldorf’s defense might make sense. With clean sheet odds of 3 and an implied probability of over 30%, a two-player stack for around 15m could reward you handsomely. It also allows you to save up some cash to boost your offense.

Paderborn is dead-last in the standings, not least due to their bad offense away from home (only 13 goals scored in 12 away matches). To combine the solid clean sheet odds with some scoring potential, consider Kaan Ayhan (Dusseldorf, 7.7m) as part of your stack, as he already has five attacking returns (3 goals, 2 assists) this season.

 

SOCIAL DISTANCING of the Week

Please keep at least 1.50 meters away from other people. Please keep even further away from Borussia Dortmund's defense this Saturday. Wild games have been the norm in the derby between Dortmund and Schalke (Gelsenkirchen) over the last 3 years, with scores like 4:4 or 4:2 for Schalke.

Borussia kept only one clean sheet against Schalke over the last 3 years.

On top, Dortmund will miss not one, but both central midfielders (Can, Witsel). Now combine this with the lack of opportunity to train for such a situation. Nobody knows how much „Derby“ will remain without spectators, but I’d not bet on Dortmund to keep it clean.

We hope this preview has been helpful. Fully armed with our tips, feel free to discuss the upcoming slate on our forums, participate in the battle of blogs and we wish you Viel Glück this weekend!

nevermind721
Author

nevermind721

Koalified fantasy sports enthusiast from Germany. Loves Fanteam almost as much as a good Weizenbier. Being a strategy manager by profession, he aims to translate these skills into Daily Fantasy Sports. After being one of the biggest winners in the early days of European DFS, he is aspiring to get back on top, with current net profits of over 35,000 Euros.