Football

2 years ago

EPL Watch. Game Week 13 Fantasy Preview

The international break is done and dusted, and we are in for another unpredictable week of action in the English Premier League! Manchester City will be facing Chelsea at home trying to stay afloat after the wreck at Anfield. Everton will be playing hosts to Norwich, whose woeful away form makes them easy prey on paper. We will be looking at captaincy options in these two teams playing at home and try to unearth some differential and value picks as well for the weekend slates at FanTeam and Bethard.

 

Games of FanTeam's €50K Main Event 

Home Away 1 X 2 CS H CS A >2.5 H >2.5 A
ARS SOU 63,92 21,03 15,05 38,31 13,57 39,58 10,67
BOU WOL 35,85 28,95 35,20 28,61 28,61 17,27 16,96
BHA LEI 27,22 27,22 45,57 22,62 32,65 13,87 23,46
CRY LIV 13,40 19,57 67,02 13,01 41,67 9,05 39,92
EVE NOR 63,09 21,98 14,93 37,11 13,19 37,55 10,80
WAT BUR 45,05 26,86 28,09 32,65 23,46 22,09 13,77
MCI CHE 71,84 17,76 10,39 42,41 10,56 45,67 8,84
SHU MUN 27,45 27,92 44,63 26,10 36,26 11,59 19,00
AVL NEW 45,87 27,14 26,99 33,04 22,62 22,62 13,38

Legend

  • CS H - Clean Sheets Home
  • CS A - Clean Sheets Away
  • >2.5 H - Total over 2.5 Goals Home
  • >2.5 A - Total over 2.5 Goals Away

More charts to get ready for the slate at Fanteam

PREMIUM

EVERTON

Richarlison (MF, 12.4) – Walcott (MF, 10.3) – Digne (DF, 9.9). 32,6% of the budget

Everton’s assets are making their first appearance of the season in the premium bracket. Unfortunately for Marco Silva’s side, it is not due to their attacking form rather their opponents' awful away record. 

Everton created 6,73 xG and 11 big chances in their last 4 home outings, while Norwich have conceded 60 shots, 7,11 xG, and 9 big chances in their last 4 away games. 

Walcott (10,3), somewhat surprisingly, leads the team in shots (11) and xGI (1,52) over the last 4 game weeks. 

Richarlison (12,4) is not far behind with an equal number of shots (11), slightly worse xGI (1,34), and 30 penalty touches to the Englishman’s 25. 

With question marks surrounding Tosun’s fitness, who looked lively scoring once coming off the bench against Spurs and starting the subsequent match, I would consider either Sigurdson (11,8) or Calvert-Lewin (11,3) as the third puzzle piece of an attacking stack. 

Given Norwich’s awful attacking numbers away from home (3,34 xG and 2 big chances created in their last 4 away games), I would advise going for Digne (9,9) to complement two attacking picks, though. The price tag for the defender is a bit high, but he is on some set-pieces and has great attacking stats. He leads the team for chances created (33) and crosses (131).

With 3 assists to his name so far, and 13 shots to go with it, attacking returns are not impossible from the Frenchman. 

Everton are given 63% to win and 37% to score more than 2 goals

VALUE

Wolverhampton

Jimenez (FW, 8.2) – Jota (FW, 7.3). 15,5% of the budget

Value is hard to find this week with even matchups and unjustified prices for some top assets.

I turn my head to the traveling Wolves, who might open up the ever-unpredictable Bournemouth on the counter. The hosts have been rather solid at home of late (4,25 xGC in last 4 home games) but looked vulnerable away at Newcastle last week. I am expecting the traveling side to cause problems here.

Jimenez (8,2) is Wolves’ designated penalty-taker, who almost always completes full matches. His stats in the last 6 games are impressive: 3,36 xGI, 16 shots in the box, 3 goals, and 2 assists. 

Jota (7,3) leads the team in xGI (2,90) in the last 4 games, despite failing to score or assist once. He has fired 13 shots and had 4 big chances over the same period. A player of his caliber will eventually get on the scoresheet, why not this Saturday.

Both team have a 35% chance to win the encounter.

NEWCASTLE

Saint-Maximin (FW, 6.5) – Almiron (MF, 6.9). 13,4% of the budget

Newcastle’s away game at Villa looks pretty evenly matched. Many will be picking the likes of McGinn, Grealish, and Wesley from the home team. I can’t really argue with those picks and will have some Villa defenders and attackers alike in some of my teams, but the visitors impressed me in their last 2 games (a 3:2 win over West Ham away, and a victory a 2:1 at home against Bournemouth).

Saint-Maximin (6,5) and Almiron (6,9) have impressed me the most and should count themselves unlucky to have 0 goals and 0 assists in their last 4 games despite 2,26xG and 1,04 xG respectively. 

The home side’s mediocre stats in their last 4 home games (5,72 xG, 7 big chances conceded) bodes well for these two pacy attackers hoping to add a goal to their names at last. Look out for the visitors to hit Villa on the counter-attack. 

 

Premium Defensive Stack

Everton – 17,7 mln (Digne+Holgate)

To keep a clean sheet – 37%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 away games) – 2,35

xG conceded (last 4 home games) – 4,64

Norwich are simply too bad away from home, and an easy win seems likely for the hosts. Holgate is a rotation risk, replace him with Sidibe (0,4 mln. more expensive) if need be.

Value Defensive Stack

Sheffield United – 11,1 mln. (Lundstram+Egan)

To keep a clean sheet – 26%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 away games) – 6,95

xG conceded (last 4 home games) – 5,24

Rock-solid at home. They gave Liverpool a run for their money, and United are not the kind of team at the moment to score at will. Their attacking xG stats are skewed due to penalties (most of which they had missed anyways).

 

CAPTAINS

SAFE PICK

Sergio Aguero  (13.8)

City have a lot to prove. To themselves, to everyone. It will be a tough night out for Chelsea in what I expect to be a game full of goals. City have 13 xG in their last 4 home games and are given a 71% chance to win. The Argentine is capable of scoring a couple, especially at home. Avoid picking unless you want to captain him, the price tag is merciless to your fantasy budget.

He is given a 60% chance to score anytime.

DIFFERENTIAL PICK

Richarlison (12.4)

Might play OOP as forward with Tosun questionable for the Norwich game, his stats are too good to ignore with the league’s worst defense visiting. 

He is given a 50% chance to score anytime.

 

DIFFERENTIALS (<6.5 mln.)

 

  • Redmond (sou, 6.5)  OOP against leaky Arsenal. Due a goal.

  • Trossard (BHA, 6,4)  the explosive Belgian is fir again.

  • Pulisic (che, 6,2) I see goals in this one.

  • Moore (SHU, 5,4)  not ruling our a clean sheet from Henderson's replacement.

  • Yedlin (NEW, 4,9) the price is too good and will be full of confidence following a goal last game.

 

FADES

Fading a player in DFS — ignoring him entirely for the slate due to inadequate pricing or other reasons.

Mohamed Salah (13.8). Crystal Palace are a tricky opponent away from home. Klopp has been coy on Salah's fitness, and it has been noted the Egyptian doesn't play well with little niggles. The price is too steep for an away encounter and the opponent anyways.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (13.4). Southampton will be fighting for their lives and I just don't know what to expect from Arsenal these days. I do not see a thrashing here after the unconvincing display in last home games against Crystal Palace and Wolves. 

Marcus Rashford (9.0). I doubt the Red Devils will score more than once. In fact, I can see the stubborn hosts keeping a clean sheet here even with their star player, Henderson, ineligible to face his parent club. 

We hope this preview leads you to success this week on FanTeam! Remember to check out these sortable charts to help you get ready for the slate here. Enjoy playing Daily Fantasy in Europe and become the best!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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