Football

2 years ago

EPL Watch. Game Week 14 Fantasy Preview

Liverpool will be looking to exploit Brighton’s defensive frailties, Abraham’s rated a doubt might make Batshuyai a must-have, and Arsenal away form might transform canaries into birds of prey. Read to find who we recommend for the weekend slates at FanTeam and Bethard. The cherry on top would be ‘fade’ recommendations from awd2, one of Fanteam’s top earners of all time with more than €30k in profit.

 

Matches and bookies lines of FanTeam's €50K Main Event 

Home Away 1 X 2 CS H CS A >2.5 H >2.5 A
BUR CRY 41,14 29,43 29,43 35,45 28,61 17,27 12,18
CHE WHU 75,27 15,41 9,32 44,19 9,69 50,00 8,26
LIV BHA 80,76 13,57 5,67 50,80 8,44 50,00 6,23
TOT BOU 69,32 18,62 12,07 41,67 11,73 41,30 8,84
SOU WAT 45,68 27,01 27,31 33,04 23,46 22,09 13,38
NOR ARS 23,04 24,60 52,36 14,39 26,39 18,10 35,85
WOL SHU 48,95 28,80 22,25 42,41 25,82 19,79 8,84
LEI EVE 58,22 24,15 17,62 39,09 16,81 29,14 9,79
MUN AVL 64,28 21,96 13,76 40,95 13,87 34,55 8,84

Legend

  • CS H - Clean Sheets Home
  • CS A - Clean Sheets Away
  • >2.5 H - Total over 2.5 Goals Home
  • >2.5 A - Total over 2.5 Goals Away

More charts to get ready for the slate at Fanteam

 

PREMIUM

LIVERPOOL

Salah (MF, 13.6) – Mane (MF, 14.2) – Firmino (FW, 13.2). 41% of the budget

Liverpool are the biggest favorite of the slate and looking at their attacking numbers at home, it is easy to understand why.

10,36 xG, 72 shots (56 in the box), 16 big chances in the last 4 home games. 2,5 expected goals per match is an intimidating number to hear, especially when you have conceded 11,22xG and 17 big chances yourselves over the same period of time, like Brighton.

The bookies are expecting an easy win for the home side here.

Liverpool are at 80% to win, 50% to score more than 2 goals.

The ‘holy trinity’ is pretty much the only source of attacking points (13,90 xGI in the last 6 games combined) with one notable exception — Trent Alexander-Arnold (10,8). He is fourth in terms of xGI (3,32) and leads the team by a mile with 23 chances created. He lacks the goal threat of the trio, and his price is steep for a defender, but if you are looking to save a few million, include him in your Liverpool stack. 

Mane (14,2) seems to be in stellar form, but is still trailing Salah (13,6) in terms of penalty area touches (33 to 42), and shots (15 to 24). He is ahead of the Egyptian when it comes to big chances though (6 to 4), and the current form is a factor. 

Firmino’s (13,2) appeal is slightly lessened by him listed a forward, but his underlying stats are as great as his partners’. Pick him alongside Salah and Mane if money is not an issue. Swap him for Alexander-Arnold if you need a few extra millions.

 

VALUE

BURNLEY

Wood (FW, 8.6) – Barnes (FW, 8.9) – Mee (D, 6.3). 24% of the budget

Burnley have turned things around with two 3:0 victories in their last two after three consecutive defeats. Looking solid at the back once again (3,47 xG and 4 big chances conceded in last 4 home games), they welcome Crystal Palace, whose attacking form leaves much to be desired (4,58 xG last 4 away games). I am looking for the hosts to win this one, probably nicking another clean sheet in the process. 

Barnes (8,9) and Wood (8,6) have combined for 8 goals (8,90 xG) in the last 6 games and are always an aerial threat. With such solid clean sheet chances, I would advise stacking one of Dyche’s central defenders with his reliable forwards. 

Burnley stand a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet according to bookies.

Ben Mee (6,5) is 0,3 million cheaper than Tarkowski, offers the same goal threat (0,71 xGI, 3 headed attempts from set-plays in his last 6 games), and great value. I also predict him to be slightly less owned of the two due to Tarkowski’s recent goal heroics.

 

DIFFERENTIAL

NORWICH

Pukki (FW, 7.9) – Hernandez (MF, 7.0). 14,9% of the budget

I have already written off Norwich, dubbing them as relegation favorites after a series of outright bad uninspiring performances. The Canaries set out to prove me wrong last week, ruining my many-a-team captained by Everton players.

Norwich are hosting Arsenal this week, not the best fixture on paper, but two sides will be approaching the fixture in a different mood. The gloom of uncertainty hanging like a cloud over Arsenal with Unai Emery sacked this Friday, while there is suddenly a glimmer of hope in the Canary kingdom. 

Nothing happens without Pukki (7,9) in attack, he leads the team in xGI (1,19) and shots (9) in the last 4 games. He has created 5 chances for his teammates (2nd in team) to highlight his overall attacking contribution. A designated penalty taker, he will be looking to exploit Arsenal’s infamous defensive frailties.

The visitors have conceded 74 shots (only Brighton and Villa have conceded more over the same period), 7 big chances, and 5,74 xG in their last 4 away outings.  

Arsenal only have a 26% chance to keep a clean sheet according to bookies.

Onel Hernandez (7,0), having started the last three games, added some tenacity and determination to Canaries’ attacks. He leads the team in penalty area touches across the last 4 games (24), is tied in 1st for shots (9), and is 2nd in xGI (1,02).

A new face on the block, he will be most likely overlooked by many managers with me estimating his ownership around the 5% mark. His high average position on the pitch also adds to the appeal. 

 

Premium Defensive Stack

Liverpool – 20,3 mln (Alexander-Arnold+Lovren)

To keep a clean sheet – 50%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 away games) – 4,11

xG conceded (last 4 home games) – 3,00

The price is hardly justifiable, but Trent always has an assist in him. Don't write off Lovren as well (4 goal attempts in 5 appearances).

 

Value Defensive Stack

Wolves – 13,7 mln. (Doherty+Jonny)

To keep a clean sheet – 42%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 away games) – 2,74

xG conceded (last 4 home games) – 6,12

Doherty has more penalty area touches (31) and shots (12) than some forwards. Sheffield United are not as dangerous as on home turf.

 

CAPTAINS

SAFE PICK

Mohamed Salah  (13.6)

An easy win for the hosts with 3+ goals highly likely.

He is given a 56% chance to score anytime.

DIFFERENTIAL PICK

Christian Pulisic (12.8)

With managers dropping like flies lately, I doubt Pelligrini survives this one. The in-form American might just drive the last nail into the coffin. 

He is given a 52% chance to score anytime.

DIFFERENTIALS (<6.5 mln.)

  • Richarlison (eve, 6.2)  will be ignored in favor of overpriced Leicester assets.

  • Grealish (avl, 5,5)  Villa capable of a surprise away from home.

  • Deeney (wat, 5,8) Southampton are not exactly a defensive fortress. The skipper will kick and tear, provided he starts.

  • Henderson (shu, 6,2)  do not see Sheffield conceding a lot in this one. A clean sheet is a possibility.

  • Lundstram (shu, 5,5) it looks like he is a shoo-in in every differential section.

 

FADES

Fading a player in DFS — ignoring him entirely for the slate due to inadequate pricing or other reasons.

awd2 ,one of Fanteam’s top earners of all time with more than €30k in profit and 10k tournaments played, is here to help you fade some overpriced players.  

Aubameyang (12.3) and Lacazette (11,9). It is hard to say what happens to Arsenal now with Emeri gone. Arsenal are bad away from home which is common knowledge. These two are expensive and I won't be picking them with so many similarly-priced but more reliable options available in Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and MU.

Jimenez (9.2). Sheffield are this year's biggest surprise in terms of quality displays. I envision this to be a stern test for Wolves. There is one more thing — Jimenez is a fella that gets on the scoresheet regularly, but that is a problem for daily fantasy. He managed to get more than one goal\assist only once in 13 games them being two assists in one game. In your large GPPs you are looking for high-risk high-reward type of players instead of the reliable, but low-scoring players like the Mexican. 

We hope this preview leads you to success this week on FanTeam! Remember to check out these sortable charts to help you get ready for the slate here. Enjoy playing Daily Fantasy in Europe and become the best!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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