Football

2 years ago

EPL Watch. Game Week 7 Preview

Cityzens are rolling, Tammy is firing on all cylinders, is Kane still capable?The slate is intriguing with the return of a 3-player per team limit at FanTeam. Read on to find out more!

Previous week's picks in review

The previous week’s picks were a bit of a mixed bag. Yes, we hinted at City scoring a lot, and Ozil a bargain at 8,5 mln. Ozil and Sterling turned out to be a no-show and I vouched for their inclusion in your fantasy teams. Aguero walked away with just 1 goal and an assist having registered 14 penalty area touches, 6 shots (6 in the box), and 4 big chances. 

Albeit playing with 10 men for the most part, Arsenal had 2,36 xG with Aubameyang (4 shots,3 in the box, 1 big chance, 0,49xGI, 1 free-kick goal) and Pepe (5 shots, 4 in the box, 1 big chance, 1,35 xGI, 1 penalty goal) the stars of the show. 

Crystal Palace were close to securing a minimal clean-sheet victory, just like we were hoping for, to justify out defensive and midfield picks. Wolves did enough (1,52 xG) to grab a hard-fought point which makes a stoppage-time goal a bitter pill to swallow for all Crystal Palace owners nonetheless. 

I am happy to say I nailed the Sheffield part of the recommendation right. Lundstram and Norwood walked away with fantasy points, McGoldrick didn’t start. Everton didn’t create enough against their stalwart opponents with 1,01xG not enough to breach Henderson’s goal.

Here are the games that make up FanTeam’s50k guaranteed slate for the weekend:

I have some good news for those of you who are tired of playing Pep’s roulette. Seriously, has anyone predicted Sterling not starting last week?

FanTeam have introduced the “Safety Net” rule which auto-subs the players not starting for the next most expensive player of the same position from the same team. I believe it will make for more inclusion of players from Sunday matches in many lineups. Managers used to load up on players from Saturday matches mostly, playing it safe with lineups known 1 hour before the deadline. We will see what changes it brings to the game.

Read more on Safety Net here

What is more important, is the reintroduction of a 3 player-per-team limit. The last two main events were dominated by two-team “monster stacks”.

You CAN'T pick teams like that anymore

Five or six players of a top team were paired up with budget-friendly picks from underdog teams who delivered upsets. Some top players we contacted referred to the game becoming:

pick-a-team fantasy, rather than search for players type of a game.

FanTeam is putting an end to that with a world-wide standard of 3 players per team.

Before we dive into recommendations, let us share with you these charts that might come in handy while preparing for the slate.

  • Home teams are golden, teams playing away – silver.
  • % – to keep a clean sheet
  • Red number – xG Conceded in the last 3 games
  • Matching colors at the bottom show teams playing each other

Courtesy of Daily Fantasy Football telegram channel https://t.me/DailyFantasy

PREMIUM 

I believe Manchester City will put the foot off the pedal this week, thus I am not expecting a thrashing away at Everton, although the Toffees form has been awful lately. With the reintroduction of a 3-player cap per team, it is hard to predict who will erupt at City this time around, so I am just going to ignore them altogether in the recommendation section. 

Chelsea have caught my eye this week in the premium bracket. Not as expensive as City’s, Chelsea’s attack ranks 4th with 9,57 xG in 6 games.

Abraham (12,8) is on fire and well-rested which is bad news for the Potter’s side. I have to mention, that Brighton have been rather solid in their 3 away matches this season (3,49 xGA, 5 big chances conceded). Still, given only a 12% chance of a clean-sheet, I am expecting the hosts to score at least twice. 

Abraham (12,8) leads the team with 7 goals, 24 penalty area touches, 18 shots (16), 3,62 xGI. He has been lethal in front of goal and should be considered for captaincy. 

Mount (10,9) is not far behind in underlying stats. 3 goals, 20 penalty area touches, 17 shots (8), 2, 53 xGI. 

The last slot is taken up by Alonso (9,3). He leads Chelsea’s defenders in penalty area touches (6), has created 6 chances and had 2 shots (1) despite playing just 166 minutes this season. A free-kick specialist, he might nick points in attack. 

Chelsea have a 41% chance to keep a clean sheet. 

VALUE PLAY

I turn to Bournemouth in search of some value this week. They are playing against one of the worst defenses in the league (5,95 xGA in the last 3 away games, 11,15 xGA overall, league’s 3rd worst).

The Cherries’ attacking numbers are rather good with 5,11 xG and 7 big chances created across their last 3 home games. 

With no midfielders catching the eye of late, I turn to the usual Wilson (10,0) - King (9,6) combo.

The former leads the team in goals (4) and xGI (3,24), the latter in penalty area touches (24) and is on penalties with 1 goal to his name. Likely an open game with goals flying in at both sides of the pitch.  

DIFFERENTIAL

Do not be fooled by Watford’s lows and an 8:0 thrashing at the Etihad last week. The underlying stats are not that bad. They are the unluckiest team scoring only 4 goals with 8,48xG in the first 6 games played.

Their away attacking heroics are not great with only 2,7 xG across 3 away games, but Wolves are looking wobbly (5,40 xGA in the last 3 home games).

Look for Watford to capitalize on the home side’s bad form. I am not expecting attacking fireworks in this game as points are too valuable to lose for both teams at the moment. It is projected to be one of the lowest-scoring encounters with 1.95 odds for a total over 2.5 goals. 

Given ultra-cheap pricing and decent odds for a clean sheet (22%), I am toying with an idea of going with the hosts’ set-piece threat Dawson (4,6), a must-have Deulofeu (6,5), and Gray (6,2). 

Dawson is the main target at set-pieces with 9 penalty area touches and 6 shots to date. 

Deulofeu leads his team in penalty touches (37), shots 18, and xGI (2,18). Playing out-of-position he is a must in this stack. 

Gray spearheads the attack for Watford and the price seems right.

CAPTAINS

Safe pick

Sergio Aguero (14,5)

You can not go wrong captaining Aguero (14,5) once again. His impressive performance and terrible luck last week may force him into another hat-trick, although I am not expecting an easy stroll for the visitors. 

After all, how can you not captain a person with 11 big chances in 6 games and 6,89 xGI?

Aguero has a 55% to score anytime according to the bookies. 

Alternative option

Tammy Abraham (12,8)

Abraham (12,8) has been impressive as of late. I am looking for him to continue his scoring run. 

He is given a 50% to score anytime.

DIFFERENTIALS

Players that are worth less than 6,5 mln. but capable of attacking returns. Used to pluck holes in your lineup.

  • Deulofeu (wat, 6,5) - the main threat in a hugely underperforming team
  • Maupay (bha, 5,5) - Chelsea concede at home, Brighton are not going to sit back all game either
  • Redmond (sou, 5,5) - look for his pace to cause problems for the lackluster hosts
  • Pope (bur, 6,3) - Crystal Palace just aren’t scoring enough, Burnley will dig-in.
  • Dawson (wat, 4,6) - the price is too good to ignore because of his goal threat and decent clean sheet odds (22%)
  • Burnley defense (5,8-6,2) 

We hope you had found this preview useful. Best of luck this week at FanTeam, let your picks lead you to glory!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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