Football

2 years ago

EPL Watch. Game Week 9 Preview.

We are ready to dive once again into the unpredictable waters of the Premier League with the international break done and dusted. City are facing a hard test away at Crystal Palace with Roy Hodgon’s proving a tough nut to crack for Pep lately. Liverpool’s game won’t be a walk in the park either even with doubts surrounding Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's future and his side's lackluster displays. Value is hard to find in the traditionally unpredictable after the break week with players arriving in different conditions and moods, but we will do our best. Read on to find out who we recommend this week!

Here are the games that make up FanTeam’s50k guaranteed slate for the weekend:

Before we dive into recommendations, let us share with you these charts that might come in handy while preparing for the slate.

  • Home teams are golden, teams playing away – silver.
  • % – to keep a clean sheet
  • Red number – xG Conceded in the last 3 games
  • Matching colors at the bottom show teams playing each other

PREMIUM 

Chelsea are in great scoring form and have a 74% chance of winning the home game (44% chance to score more than 2 goals). The Londoners boast impressive 8,21 xG and 14 big chances (slightly behind only Manchester City in both categories) in their last 4 home games which is bad news for the traveling Magpies.

Newcastle conceded 7,31 xG in their last 4 away games, will undoubtedly park the bus, but there is enough spark in this young Chelsea team to take the visitors apart. 

Tammy Abraham (13,5) scored 4 times in the last 4 games (2,71 xGI) and is the hosts’ main threat. No one has had more shots (15) or big chances (6) in this Chelsea team in the last 4 outings. In fact, he trails only Sergio Aguero in these categories in the whole league.

Callum Hudson-Odoi (8,3) played only 107 minutes but has 2 assists to his name. He might be a steal at FanTeam being so kindly priced, provided he starts, of course. 

Mason Mount (13) is the set-piece specialist and Lampard’s favorite playing 90 minutes most of the time (+1 point for a full match played on FanTeam).

1,89 xGI and 2 assists in his last 4 games, combined with passing multiple ‘eye-tests’ in flying colors, call for his inclusion despite the hefty price. He’s taken 6 shots and failed to convert any of his 4 big chances in the last four games.

Chelsea sit at 44% to score 2+ goals

VALUE PLAY

It seems like FanTeam fail to believe that Bukayo Saka (6,2) has been promoted to the starting XI ahead the likes of Ozil. An Arsenal attacker at such a price, even playing away from home, even against a stubborn defense (4,50xGC in their last 4 home games), is a bargain.

Saka has yet to play a full 90-minute game, only has 1 assist to his name with 12 penalty touches, 4 shots (3), 1 big chance, and 0,84 xGI. 

I see value here when paired up with Aubameyang (11,5), Pepe (10,9), or even tripled-up with a defender\goalkeeper (Leno priced at 7,9, for example).

Sheffield do not pose much of an attacking threat  (5,62 xG, 7 big chances in their last 4 home games), and even such a leaky side as Arsenal (6,51 xGC in last 4 away games) might have enough quality in their back-line to hold off the hosts. 

Arsenal have a 31% chance to keep a clean sheet according to the bookies.

DIFFERENTIAL

Two teams caught my eye while considering differential picks.

Norwich and Brighton have similar underlying stats when it comes to attacking displays away from home. 3,74 xG+6 big chances created for Brighton in their last 4 away games, compared to 3,83xG+5 big chances for Norwich. 

Bournemouth’s (hosting Norwich) defensive stats are inferior to Villians (hosting Brighton) though. They have conceded 7,59 xG and 13 big chances on home soil in the last 4.

Aston Villa has proven less leaky with 5,01 xG and 7 big chances conceded. Based on the stat we should be opting for the Norwich duo in Pukki (8,6)+Buendia (8,4), which certainly seems like a plausible play this week. 

I would recommend going for the Brighton striker duo though, which is less pricy - Maupay (8,2) and Connoly (5,3).

They have taken 21 shots combined (with Connolly playing only 131 minutes) in their last 4 outings, and lead the team in xGI with 2,01 and 1,71 respectively.

With many premium options to choose from both in defense and attack, 3,5 million saved can really make a difference when it comes to lining up a competitive team.

With defensive stacking proving to be an essential tool despite the introduction of the stacking penalty on FanTeam, we are bringing back our defensive recommendations.

Premium defensive stack

Chelsea  - 18,7 mln. 

To keep a clean sheet - 49%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 away games) - 2,19

xG conceded (last 4 home games) - 3,06

Alonso an attacking threat - 2 assists, 14 penalty area touches, 3 shots, 1,24 xGI in his last 4 games. 

Value stack of the week

Wolves  - 14,1 mln. 

To keep a clean sheet - 39%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 away games) - 6,40

xG conceded (last 4 home games) - 6,83

Doherty an attacking threat - 1 goal, 2 big chances, 1,25 xGI in his last 4 games. 

CAPTAINS

Safe pick

Tammy Abraham (13,5)

In great goal-scoring form, plays against arguably one of the worst sides in the league. Has a 61% to score anytime.

Alternative option

Callum Wilson (11,8)

Bournemouth assets are pricey this week, but Wilson makes nice captain material to justify his hefty price tag. He is on penalties, scored 4 goals (2,71 xG) in his last 4 games, and is playing against one of the worst defenses of the league (7,41 xG in their last 4 away games).

He is given a 52% to score anytime.

DIFFERENTIALS

Players that are worth less than 6,5 mln. but capable of attacking returns. Used to pluck holes in your lineup.

  • Foster (wat, 4,6) - Spurs are struggling, don’t see a lot of goals in this one but a couple of saves (0,5 each on FanTeam) might be on order.
  • Longstaff (new, 3,8) - in case you need an ultra-cheap option to play 90 minutes.
  • Connoly (bha,5,3) - a cheap forward in an even matchup.
  • Saka (ars,6,2) - a bargain price for an Arsenal attacker
  • Zaha (CRY,5,6) - Manchester City are frail at the back at the moment
  • Brighton's defense (5,6-6,5) - 24% to keep a clean sheet and morale on high after the win over Tottenham

We hope you had found this preview useful. Best of luck this week at FanTeam, let your picks lead you to glory!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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