Football

2 years ago

EPL Watch. Gameweek 8 Preview

The last gap of wet British air before we dive into the murky waters of the international break. Lots of options to explore at FanTeam. The safety net rule has rid us of the Pep's roulette dilemma, but the 3-player limit has added variety to our teams. Read on to find out who we recommend this week!

Previous week's picks in review

Our attacking pick of the last week's slate — Chelsea — delivered in terms of xG (3,76) but not the goals (2). Out captain — Abraham — failed to register any attacking returns despite 1,07 xGI. Alonso was equally as good with 0,78 xGI but had nothing to show in terms of fantasy points bar the clean sheet. Chelsea outplayed the visitors in all departments allowing a meager 0,59 xGC, utterly deserving their clean sheet.

I did nail the Bournemouth duo as well with both Wilson and King registering a goal apiece. King also had an assist to go with it.

Watford are sitting dead last and the game against Wolves didn't show they were climbing out any time soon. Deulofeu was subbed off in half time and Watford scored nothing despite 1,43xG.

Aguero didn't start — what is it with Pep? Thank the safety net rule, 30% of the teams had Aguero in the starting lineup which was automatically replaced by Jesus.

Read more on Safety Net here

Here are the games that make up FanTeam’s50k guaranteed slate for the weekend:

Last week's main event champ probably had Aguero set as captain. Luckily for him, his surprise vice-captain did very well when the Argentine was a no-show.

Before we dive into recommendations, let us share with you these charts that might come in handy while preparing for the slate.

  • Home teams are golden, teams playing away – silver.
  • % – to keep a clean sheet
  • Red number – xG Conceded in the last 3 games
  • Matching colors at the bottom show teams playing each other

Courtesy of Daily Fantasy Football telegram channel https://t.me/DailyFantasy

PREMIUM 

We turn again to the prolific City attack. Wolves conceded 6,36 xG and 9 big chances in their last 4 games. I wouldn’t guarantee them keeping away the explosive City (13,08 xG in their last 4 games) even if they had conceded 0 xG up to this point. With Europa League taking a toll on the team, I am backing the City’s trio. 

Mahrez (13,6) is in superb form and will most likely start on the left-wing with De Bryune out for the game. With 2,78 xGI in his last 4 games (287 minutes played), he will undoubtedly cause havoc in the Wolves backline. 

Sterling (13,8) started on the bench in Zagreb but scored and assisted coming on shortly after the half-time. Six goals scored so far, he trails only Aguero in terms of XGI (6,45) and big chances (9). 

The Argentine hasn’t been called by his national team and will be staying in Manchester over the international break. With the safety net rule serving as a much-needed insurance when it comes to Pep’s roulette, I will bet on Aguero (14,5) starting and scoring. 27 shots,11 big chances, and 8 goals scored speak for itself. 

VALUE PLAY

I was disappointed with Watford not scoring last week against Wolves, but with 1,43 xG created and being the worst underperforming side in the EPL (9,91 xG with only 4 goals scored) a home match is ideal to bounce back.

The players might have gelled having trained under the new manager for nearly three weeks and despite Sheffield performing above expectations so far, I am backing the home side at this price. 

The lineups will be announced 1 hour before the slate starts, so there will be no second-guessing involved. Welbeck (8,3) looked hungry for goals registering 6 penalty touches and4 shots (3) last week. 

With 354 minutes played to date, Pereyra (8,2) is ranked 3rd with 1,90 xG. He is on penalties with Deeney out injured and direct free-kicks.  

Watford have a 33% to keep a clean-sheet, Dawson  (6,8) with 4 headed attempts enters our thoughts here as well with Sheffields attack far from convincing (8,62 xG overall, 2,99 xG away from home).

DIFFERENTIAL

Crystal Palace are not felling any trees when it comes to attacking (6,86 xG, 19th attack of the league). But one thing we know about West Ham, who will be entertaining the Eagles at home, is that they can’t defend (13,14xGC). 

Townsend (6,4), who might be starting on the wing with Schlupp dropping deeper with Milivoevic banned, and the Eagles talisman - Zaha (6,8) are kindly priced and might cause problems for the Hammers leaky defense.

CAPTAINS

Safe pick

Raheem Sterling (13,8)

Well-rested, in great goal-scoring form. With City's home games it often comes down to picking who will bag a hat-trick. My bet is on this lad this week.

Sterling has a 60% to score anytime according to the bookies. 

Alternative option

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (13,8)

Do not feel like I have overlooked Arsenal playing at home against one of the worst defenses (6,57 xGC in 3 away matches). He has had fantasy returns in every league match he has played this season. 7 goals, 7 big chances, 33 penalty-area touches, 4.10 xGI — hard to ingore.

He is given a 63% to score anytime which is highest amongst forwards.

DIFFERENTIALS

Players that are worth less than 6,5 mln. but capable of attacking returns. Used to pluck holes in your lineup.

  • Sarr (WAT, 6,0) - the least expensive asset in an underperforming team. Monitor if he starts though.
  • Jimenez (wol, 5,5) - City are not as solid at the back as they used to be
  • Schlupp (cry, 4,8) - the price is too good to ignore, the visitors might pull off a surprise victory here.
  • Dubravka (new, 5,6) - Manchester United are struggling up front, capable of making saves and I am just not seeing United scoring a lot here.
  • Mina (eve, 5,9) - the towering defender has had 7 attempts from set-pieces. Everton have a 32% to keep a clean sheet
  • Everton defense (5,8-6,5) 

We hope you had found this preview useful. Best of luck this week at FanTeam, let your picks lead you to glory!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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