Football

4 months ago

EPL Watch. Week 10 Fantasy Preview

With many even match-ups this week, obvious captain choices of Manchester City out of FanTeam’s slate, Liverpool and Chelsea facing tough opponents, it is home teams we look up to with an attractive away option when it comes to budget defense. Read on to find out who we recommend for this week's main event at FanTeam!

Last Week's Picks in Review

It was a rather dismal week for our recommendations. Only Chelsea lived up to our expectations as far as a clean sheet was concerned. They allowed 0,40 xG and rightfully deserved their clean sheet with our attacking threat recommendation Alonso getting on the scoresheet. Unfortunately, the Blues failed to convert their chances (15 shots in box, 4 big chances, 2,06xG) and disappointed many Abraham captainers, myself included.  

Wilson (2 shots, 0,40 xGI), our alternative captain pick wasn’t amongst the best performers in a sleepy encounter against Norwich. Two zeroes on the scoreboard after 90 minutes was not what we were hoping to see. Our value picks in Arsenal didn’t do much as well, losing away at Sheffield. 

Brighton were let down against by a dismissal, Mooy sent off for an early shower this time. Will he be dispatched to Turkey same as his former teammate Andone after his red card, I wonder. Maupay registered 6 shots (4), 0,65 xGI and still remains their best attacking pick, Connoly was replaced at half time with 2 shots (2) to his name. 

Week 9 Main Event Champion

Tigana, the main event 50K guaranteed champion capitalized on Chelsea’s solid clean sheet chances, had one of the best values of the slate in Hudson-Odoi in his team (51% ownership), got a bit lucky with the safety net rule assigning captaincy to Sterling instead of the benched Aguero, and took a risk with the differential Sheffield stack (1% ownership). Even a total of -3 stacking penalty points (3 Sheffield defenders), an unconventional play, didn’t deter him from winning and pocketing 4,623 Euros for that team alone.

Here are the games that make up FanTeam’s50k guaranteed slate for the weekend:

Before we dive into recommendations, let us share with you these charts that might come in handy while preparing for the slate.

  • Home teams are golden, teams playing away – silver.
  • % – to keep a clean sheet
  • Red number – xG Conceded in the last 3 games
  • Matching colors at the bottom show teams playing each other

PREMIUM 

I was tempted to include Liverpool’s picks in the premium bracket but was deterred by their price and tougher opposition. Arsenal’s picks have caused me nothing but pain this season, but I am willing to promote them once again. 

Their home displays are much more convincing, 6,90 xG over the last 4 home games. Their opponents - Crystal Palace - have conceded 7,10 xG in their 4 away games. They might prove a hard nut to crack, but I still see the home team scoring at least 2 goals here. 

Arsenal are given a 40% chance to score more than 2 goals by the bookies.

It is hard to justify the steep price tag without captaining any of the three, so bear that in mind. Aubameyang and Saka were rested for the Europa League match, Pepe made a 15-minute cameo scoring twice. I believe all three to start with Lacazette clearly not fit enough.

Pepe ($12,5) and Aubameyang ($13) lead the team in XG  and shots in their last 4 matches (2,53\1,98, 10\11). Saka ($9,9) has inferior stats but is slightly cheaper and capable of assisting or scoring himself at least once.

VALUE PLAY

Watford are creating enough chances on home soil (7,21 xG, 9 big chances in their last 4) to create problems for the leaky Bournemouth conceding almost 2xG per away match (7,78 xG and 8 big chances conceded). 

Bournemouth are dangerous on the counter-attack, but you never know when Eddie Howe’s troops wake up on the wrong side of the bed. Watford are in a desperate situation and this game sure looks like a must-win if they are to stay in the EPL next season. I hope players have gelled under the new manager already, and invigorated by their solid away performance at Spurs, will hit the ground running. 

I am vouching for the inclusion of Dawson ($7,0) as he is the Hornets’ main set-piece target. Bournemouth only have 4,06 xG and 8 big chances in their last 4 away games and didn’t impress against the leaky Norwich last week. 

Watford have been ok in terms of xGC on home turf of late, with 5,84 xGC in their last 4.

They have a 27,5% chance to keep a clean sheet according to the bookies. 

Deulofeu ($9,4) and Pereyra ($8,5) will most likely be paired up in front, thus playing out-of-position. They lead the team in penalty area touches, 11 and 9, while the Spaniard edges the Argentine with 7 shots (5) to 3(2) in their last 4 games. Pereyra is on set-pieces though, so I am not ruling out a dead ball from him landing right on top of Dawson’s head.

DIFFERENTIAL

Norwich have already slain one Machester giant at home and despite MU’s solid defensive numbers in their last 4 away outings (2,32 xG and 2 big chances conceded), I am backing the hosts to score. Pukki and Co have shown they don’t need many chances to convert them. 

Pukki ($7,6) leads the team in penalty area touches (34) and shots (9) in the last 4 game weeks.

Buendia ($7,4) is second with 21 and 6 respectively. 1,26 xGI each (team’s best) they have a natural partnership that might hurt the giants (if we can apply the term to the sorry Machester United of late).

Many heads will be turned elsewhere with Canaries’ unconvincing attacking displays of late, but I believe they have a goal in them on home soil, perhaps even a couple. 

With defensive stacking proving to be an essential tool despite the introduction of the stacking penalty on FanTeam, we are bringing back our defensive recommendations.

Premium defensive stack

? Liverpool – $18,9 mln.

To keep a clean sheet – 37%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 away games) – 3,64

xG conceded (last 4 home games) – 2,37

The steep price might be compensated by Allison’s saves and TAA’s attacking returns. Leads the league’s defenders with 30 chances created.

Value stack of the week

? Wolves – $11 mln.

To keep a clean sheet – 36%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 home games) – 3,06

xG conceded (last 4 away games) – 4,47

The price is too good to ignore and the safety net rule will protect from possible rotations.

CAPTAINS

Safe pick

? Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal, Forward, $13)

Was rested in midweek, a fitting opponent, playing at home, leads the team in almost all attacking metrics.

He is given a 58% chance to score anytime.

Alternative option

?Marcus Rashford (Manchester Utd, Forward, $11,3)

Norwich are still one of the league's leakiest sides (19th with 16,02 xGC). United are not on a scoring spree but Marcus might be the hero of the day

He is given a 49% chance to score anytime.

DIFFERENTIALS

Players that are worth less than 6,5 mln. but capable of attacking returns. Used to pluck holes in your lineup.

  • ? Henderson (Sheffield, Goalkeeper, $5,6) - always up for a save, Sheffield are hard to break down.
  • ? Alli (Tottenham, Midfielder, $5,9) - might be the bully the Spurs need to ignite.
  • ? M.Longstaff (Newcastle, Midfielder, $4,3) - 90 minutes + impact is a possibility here.
  • ? Yedlin (Newcastle, Defender, $4,4) - the price is too good for a 33% chance of a clean sheet
  • ? Burn (Brighton, Defender, $5,5) - a threat at set-pieces and down the left flank.

We hope you had found this preview useful. Best of luck this week at FanTeam, let your picks lead you to glory!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch mostly on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with over 1300 tournaments played and a 50% ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As the chief editor at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.