Football

2 years ago

EPL Watch. Week 11 Fantasy Preview

We are excited to introduce the first EPL preview on our updated platform! Some things will gradually change as we develop DraftGym further. The visuals, the way we present you our analysis, and the available data itself will be transformed for better user experience as we move along. Let us know on Twitter what you would like to see in our previews. Game week 11 — we are looking at you! Make sure you read up to the end, as we have words of wisdom from FanTeam's top earner — TTriBL. 

 

EPL GW 11 Matches

Home Away 1 X 2 CS 1 CS 2 1 > 2.5 2 > 2.5
BOU MUN 29.43% 27.14% 43.43% 22.62% 30.16% 15.57% 22.62%
ARS WOL 54.94% 24.69% 20.37% 35.45% 17.27% 29.69% 11.73%
AVL LIV 11.24% 17.93% 30.83% 11.31% 42.79% 8.64% 43.38%
BHA NOR 56.24% 23.58% 20.18% 32.65% 15.20% 30.40% 12.50%
MCI SOU 89.47% 7.37% 3.15% 55.23% 5.85% 67.86% 5.59%
SHU BUR 43.29% 29.83% 26.88% 38.78% 28.61% 16.96% 10.56%
WHU NEW 52.29% 25.73% 21.97% 35.45% 19.00% 25.27% 11.31%
WAT CHE 18.12% 22.23% 59.65% 14.29% 34.93% 11.73% 33.57%
CRY LEI 27.45% 27.92% 44.63% 25.27% 34.93% 12.50% 20.43%
EVE TOT 34.79% 27.31% 37.90% 24.68% 25.82% 19.39% 21.59%

 

PREMIUM

MANCHESTER CITY

De Bryune (14.6) – Sterling (13.9) – Mendy (9.4). 37,9% of the budget

Pep never ceases to surprise, this time fielding both Jesus and Aguero. In the League Cup. At home. What are you doing to us, or the lord of tinkerers?

Manchester City are playing at home, and with 67% to score over 2,5 goals, I am backing the Citizens in the premium bracket again. 

Having been rested in midweek I am pretty confident (as confident as you can be with Guardiola, of course) Sterling, DeBryune, and David Silva are starting against the Saints. With Sterling stationed on the wing, I am intrigued to find out who will spearhead the attack this time. 

We will have the advantage of knowing the starting lineups for this particular game tomorrow, so here is a little comparison of Jesus (12,5) and Aguero (14,3) across their last 4 home games.

Curiously enough, the Brazilian failed to score in his last 4 at home while the Argentine bagged 3 goals and assisted twice. He is ahead in terms of xG and shots (2,63 to 1,43 and 14 to 9). Bear in mind, though, that Jesus played only 129 minutes to Aguero’s 284 in this time frame.

I believe both of them could make solid captain material depending on who starts.

Southhampton will be well-prepared having rehearsed 3 days ago at the Etihad. The League Cup scoreline was decent (3:1) and the visitors conceded only 4,50xG and 7 big chances in their last 4 away outings. They are to face DeBryune (14,6) and Sterling (13,9) this time out, which is a totally different story, of course. 

City have scored 15 goals (12,15xG) in their last 4 home games.

DeBryune leads the team in xGI (3,61) having bagged 2 goals and assisted 6 times. 

Aguero (14,3) is second with 3,38, Sterling is ranked fourth with 2,54 (2 goals, 0 assists). 

If you are feeling adventurous, I would recommend captaining the rested Belgian. Mendy (9,4) marauding the left flank may also be a good pick if you opt to save some funds go for a 1+2 stack instead. 

City stand at 55% to keep a clean sheet

VALUE

BRIGHTON

Gross (MF, 10.4) – Maupay (FW, 10.6) – Webster (D, 7.4). 28,4% of the budget

Brighton welcomу the league’s worst defense (20,46 xGC - 2 goals a match on average, 32 big chances, and 68 shots on target).

With Trossard’s (9,6) energetic 30-minute game-turning cameo last week, many people would love to see the creative Belgian stationed on the left-wing from the get-go. Graham Potter treads with care, though, having said he was unsure “how much Trossard can play against Norwich”. Keep an eye on the starting lineups and make changes if necessary. 

Brighton still offer good value with Trossard or not with 5,79 xG in their last 4 home games and impressive back-to-back wins against Tottenham (3:0) and Everton (3:2). 

Pascal Gross (10,4) is joint-third among midfielders for chances created, has a goal and an assist in his last 4 outings (1,58 xGI), and is on set-piece duties.  

Neal Maupay (10,6) leads the team in their last 4 matches in XGI - 2,75 (2 goals), penalty touches (24), and shots (12).

The hosts are clearly capable of troubling Krul with the bookies giving them a 30% chance to score over 2,5 goals.

DIFFERENTIAL

WOLVERHAMPTON

Jimenez (FW, 6.8) – Traore (MF, 6.4) – Doherty (D, 5.4). 18,6% of the budget

Look no further than the Wolves this week.

Wasting a 2 goal lead at home to Palace, the captain throwing a fit and refusing to apologize for his behavior afterward — nothing seems to be going Arsenal’s way.

Wolves, meanwhile, have a great anti-top-6 defensive cannon mounted with explosive Jimenez (6,8) ready to shell-shock the hosts. I would advise stacking an attacking-minded defender Doherty (5,4) (9 penalty area touches, 1,52 xGI + 1 goal in his last 4), and Traore (6,4) - probably playing OOP as a winger again.

Not quite expecting attacking fireworks from the Wolves although 6,58 xG and 14 chances created in last 4 away games might suggest otherwise. But Arsenal are nothing but average defensively at home (5,63 xGC,47 shots and 8 big chances conceded).

The away pack is capable of scoring at least once. A clean sheet against the broody hosts won’t surprise me either. 

Wolves are given a 17% chance to keep a clean sheet - a contrarian move for sure. 

Premium Defensive Stack

 

Liverpool – 18,4 mln (Alexander-Arnold+Lovren)

To keep a clean sheet – 42%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 home games) – 6,32

xG conceded (last 4 away games) – 4,18

Lovren, a probable starter, makes the stack price a lot more affordable. Trent Alexander-Arnold leads the league with 37 chances created.

 

Value Defensive Stack

 

Burnley – 10,5 mln. (Mee+Tarkowski)

To keep a clean sheet – 28%

Opponent’s xG (last 4 home games) – 4,38

xG conceded (last 4 away games) – 4,95

Bee and Tarkowski have a total of 11 headed attempts from set-pieces.

 

CAPTAINS

SAFE PICK

Raheem Sterling (13.9)

I just can’t look past the well-rested Sterling (13,9). Expect him to tear the right flank apart.

He is given a 61% chance to score anytime

DIFFERENTIAL PICK

Pascal Gross (10.4)

Pascal Gross (10,4) will be captained by a handful of managers as most will be looking at City’s and Liverpool’s picks and his teammate — Maupay.

 

DIFFERENTIALS

 

  • Saiss (wol, 4,4) – the price is too good to ignore in a winnable match.

  • Patricio (wol, 4,9) Arsenal will shoot much, but doubt will score a lot.

  • Pickford (EVE, 6,2) Tottenham just don’t look like a well-oiled machine they used to be last season.

  • Traore (wol, 6,4) OOP in a winnable match.

  • Deulofeu (WAT, 6,8) Chelsea do not look unpenetrable away from home.

  • Zaha (CRY, 6,8) Palace’s talisman will be low owned after Leicester’s impressive display last time out.

 

REG RECOMMENDS

TTriBL is FanTeam's top earner with €50k+ profit across 13k tournaments played. He boasts a 35% ROI and fills fantasy opponents' hearts with fear. Be not afraid though — he is only going to provide us with priceless info on what players to fade this game week.

Aubameyang (12.3) — a quality and consistent pick from the Gunners. Since Lacazette's return plays deeper. Wolves are solid and comfortable playing on the counter sitting back, so the Gabonese forward looks to be too overpriced this game week. 

Abraham (12.6) — one of the league's top scorers against the bottom team. Looks good on paper but Watford has improved defensively after the managerial change if we dig deeper.  Tammy has regressed of late and has got strong competition in the forward position. He is not the only capable goal scorer in Chelsea's attacking group either. 

Maddison (9.6) — Leicester's most creative midfielder has dropped not only his point returns but his average position as well of late. Crystal Palace won't be repeating Southampton's mistakes meaning he won't be presented with many chances to score. 

We hope this preview leads you to success this week on FanTeam! Good luck to us all!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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