Football

2 years ago

EPL Watch. Week 6 Preview

Has your faith in Manchester City faltered? Be not afraid, we believe the Citizens will make it up to you this week. There are other intriguing options to choose for daily fantasy slates at FanTeam, so read on to find out more!

I and Pep had one of the worst Saturdays ever when it comes to football. Fantasy football, in my case, of course. My teams and my recommendation article were full of Manchester City picks. Norwich won, because they put more balls in the back of the net, and, well, had balls to attack City in the first place. A feat few of the newly-promoted teams dare to do.

Underlying stats, on the other hand, justify the picks. City generated 2,36xG, although I expected a lot more given the injury situation at Norwich.

Sterling had 12 penalty area touches, 6 shots (4), 1 big chance, 1,10xGI and walked away without a goal or an assist despite great numbers.

Aguero could’ve done better with his 6 shots (6) and 3 big chances. No idea why Pep decided to bench the best player of the Universe at the moment, but Kevin De Bryune failed to make an impact coming off the bench. 

The West Ham attacking trio was involved in a drab 0:0 match at Villa on Monday night. I preferred going to bed early than watching the game and have no regrets doing so. 0,58 xG is not something you expect of West Ham’s attack home or away. Well, at least I slept well.

The differential in Maddison and Vardy failed to convert their chances, with Maddison firing 3 shots and wasting 2 big chances.

Here are the games that make up FanTeam’s50k guaranteed slate for the weekend:

If you had played at FanTeam before, beware, there has been a massive change to their scoring system. You can learn more from the article below.

Before we dive into recommendations, let us share with you these charts that might come in handy while preparing for the slate.

  • Home teams are golden, teams playing away – silver.
  • % – to keep a clean sheet
  • Red number – xG Conceded in the last 3 games
  • Matching colors at the bottom show teams playing each other

Courtesy of Daily Fantasy Football telegram channel https://t.me/DailyFantasy

PREMIUM 

While I have no doubt Watford are in for a beating despite a change of manager, it is Arsenal I am backing in my premium section this week as well as City. Let me explain myself before you slam your laptop shut incredulously. 

With Aguero (14,8) rested midweek and ready to fire on all cylinders and Aubameyang (13,8) getting on the scoresheet in Germany, it is the midfield picks that will make the difference. 

Ozil is priced at 8,5 which is ridiculously low. A triple up of Aubameyang (13,8), Pepe (13,4), and Ozil — the main strike force as it stands now, will come down to 35,7 mln. at FanTeam. And you are pretty much sure that all the goals will be scored by these three.

Aston Villa has conceded 7,41 xG and 90 shots on target so far. Their game away at Tottenham was a defensive disaster and Arsenal play well at home. Their 6,15 xG is two times less than City’s (13,53), but on home turf (2 games each) it is only 4,87 to 3,24 respectively. 

Pepe is second in Arsenal with 1,47 xGI (1 assist, 0 goals), 14 penalty area touches, and 13 shots. Aubameynag is unsurprisingly first with 24 penalty area touches, 16 shots (5 big chances), and 3,03 xGI. 

It is far more complicated with City. Aguero (14,8) is undoubtedly one of the best captain choices this week (65% to score anytime), but it is hard to predict who will score the other goals. The cheapest midfield option predicted to start — Bernardo Silva — is priced at 12,8 mln. Sterling is worth 14,4 and De Bryune stands at 13,9 which comes down to 43,1 mln. for the whole stack. 

Going without City attack seems like pure madness once again, but if you want to hedge your bets, and save a few quid, I suggest going for a 2+2\2+3 combination, praying you hit the right City attackers and manage to find adequate players for the scraps you have left. 

City stand at 65% to score more than 2 goals according to the bookies. Arsenal are given 43%.

Aguero has scored 7 times and assisted once this season (4,18 xGI), Aubameyang has netted 5 goals and has no assists to his name (3,06xGI). 

Ozil is being eased into the starting XI with only 71 minutes to his name so far. He registered just 1 penalty touch in that encounter, but we all know he has got the quality, especially against low-class teams. He didn’t travel to Eintracht on Thursday, so tread cautiously here. Emery is known for his unpredictability. 

VALUE PLAY

I am struggling to find value this week. It is either the prices or the stats.

Crystal Palace are not turning any heads in attack with 4,19 xG (19th), but they have a decent 33% chance of a clean sheet against the struggling Wolves.

The visitors can’t come to grips with all the rotation and extra exertion of a European campaign. So it is the prospect of a clean sheet combined with kind pricing for the likes of Zaha (7,2) - leads the team in shots (8), penalty touches (33), Townsend (6,8) — playing OOP , Milivoevic (6,9) — on penalties and set-pieces, Guaita (6,6), and van Aanholt (5,6) — 4 shots, 1 goal, 9 penalty touches that makes for the inclusion of Crystal Palace.

Expect the hosts to nick something here against the Wolves, depleted of energy and low on confidence (0:1 Europa League defeat on home turf against Braga).

DIFFERENTIAL

Everton enter this game week as heavy favorites (58% against 16% to win) but don’t dismiss Sheffield United’s budget-friendly picks.

McGoldrick (6,2) 10 shots (6 in box), 6 big chances, 2,32 xGI, and 0 goals scored so far. 

Norwood (5,5), the set-piece specialist always plays a full match (+1 point at FanTeam for a full match played) and is on all set-pieces. I am not ruling out a surprise clean sheet for the hosts as well.

Everton’s (5,94 xG, 9 big chances created) attack may struggle against a well-organized defense. Their best player so far — Richarlison — is carrying an injury and rated as a doubt at the time of writing. It might be worth considering Lundstram (4,8) playing OOP as a box-to-box midfielder as well.

CAPTAINS

Safe pickS

Sergio Aguero (14,8)\Peirre-Emerick Aubameyang (13,8)

Their numbers are so similar when it comes to playing at home, it is hard to point a finger at either one of them and name him captain. To me, Arsenal seem to have an easier opponent on paper, but Aguero has a better upside because, well, City is City after all. 

Aubameyang is 1 mln. Cheaper (13,8 to 14,8) so that is a fact to consider. They are both on penalty duties and have more than 60% to score anytime.

Look at your team composition and make the choice yourself. But going without either of these two might become your downfall.

Alternative option

Raheem Sterling (14,4)

Do not be fooled by his lack of goals and assists last time out. He is still the midfield league leader in shots (18), big chances (8), XGI (3,86), and penalty area touches (49). He will be out to do damage in a game City can not afford to lose.

DIFFERENTIALS

Players that are worth less than 6,5 mln. but capable of attacking returns. Used to pluck holes in your lineup.

  • Deulofeu (5,3,wat) - City’s defensive crisis might serve his speed well
  • McGoldrick (6,2,shu) - due a goal against a wobbly defense of late
  • Henderson (5,2,shu) - Everton are not a free-scoring machine by far and Henderson is a good goalie capable of making saves
  • Van Aanholt (5,6, CRY) - 33% chance of a clean sheet + possible attacking returns
  • Krafth (5,9,NEW) - 34% to keep a clean sheet, 3 shots in box

We hope you had found this preview useful. Best of luck this week at FanTeam, let your picks lead you to glory!

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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