Football

2 years ago

La Liga Land. Gameweek 14 Preview

Hola, everyone! It is always tough to make predictions for the games that take place after an international break. We will risk making some nonetheless as FanTeam and Bethard offer tournaments that include all fantasy La Liga matches of the weekend.

 

Fantasy La Liga GW 14 Matches

Home Away Odds to win O/U
Levante Mallorca Levante win 53% 2.5
Leganes Barcelona Barca win 68% 3.0
Betis Valencia Betis win 39% 2.5
Granada Atletico Atletico win 52% 2.0
Real Madrid Real Sociedad Real Madrid win 71% 3.5
Espanyol Getafe Espanyol win 35% 2.0
Osasuna Athletic Osasuna win 38% 2.0
Eibar Alaves Eibar win 53% 2.5
Villarreal Celta Villarreal win 55% 2.5
Valladolid Sevilla Sevilla win 50% 2.5

 

PREMIUM

REAL MADRID

Benzema (13.6) – Rodrygo (9.6) – Ramos (10.2). 33,4% of the budget

Both Barca and Real have significant chances of winning this week, according to bookies. I am leaning towards the team that plays at home on Saturday, even though their opponent seems to be much stronger.

Real have gained a considerable momentum: they have been by far the strongest team going forward in the last 5 game weeks (2.97xG/90).

12 of the last 15 goals in all tournaments were scored by only 3 players: Benzema, Rodrygo, and Ramos.

The French striker still tops the league in terms of goals and xG, the young Brazilian hinted at his world-class player potential by scoring his first hat-trick in the Champions League, and the team captain who takes penalties for The Galacticos.

You shouldn't forget about Eden Hazard (12.5), who is capable of outshining his partners in almost every game, and Dani Carvajal (9.5), sitting in the Top-10 xA ratings with 0.33 xA/90.

 

VALUE

ATLETICO MADRID

Trippier (7.1) Hermoso (5.9)  Correa (7.4). 20.4% of the budget

At first, I wanted to use Villarreal picks in this part of my preview, but their pricing seems inadequate. Atletico has similar odds according to the bookies, but you will have to spend much less on them.

Of course, we mainly concentrate on the defensive line — Simeone has the best defense in La Liga. 8 goals conceded in 13 games, the best xGA in the league.

At the moment, Los Colchoneros suffer serious personnel problems in the central part of both defense and midfield. Taking into account how Simeone used to rotate his backline at the beginning of the season, that shouldn't be a problem for Atletico.

Both fullbacks are good at creating opportunities for their partners, while centrebacks are dangerous at set-pieces. I recommend picking Kieran Trippier as he is second in the team in xA (19th place in the league), and Mario Hermoso — the cheapest of the defenders.  It is somewhat surprising given the air threat he has in the opponent's penalty area.

Angel Correa has been one of the most productive players for Simeone's side recently. He scored a goal and assisted in three of them in the last 5 games. With Diego Costa injured and Felix being questionable, he and Alvaro Morata should be considered  Atletico's main attacking assets.

 

DIFFERENTIAL

GETAFE

Cucurella (6.4) Mata (7.9). 14.3% of the budget

Espanyol is still struggling to earn at least a point in a home game. Only 2 goals scored and 13 conceded, the worst defensive and attacking stats prove that all the home magic in Barcelona lives at Camp Nou.

Getafe is nothing more than average, the last few game weeks being much better than the start of the season. Defensive stats are above average, offensive, on the contrary, are below. Why not pick a cheap defender?

Very often I advise you pick Marc Cucurella. This time out his pick doesn't look as advantageous compared to his colleagues as he is expected to deputize for Allan Nyom. But even in this case, attacking return or an assist is possible.

Getafe's best goalscorer, Angel Rodriguez, still struggles to become a nailed-on starter, so I focus my attention on Jaime Mata. He is second in the team in goals and xA and very often plays full-time.


CAPTAINS

SAFE PICK


Lionel Messi

Leo continues to be the absolute leader of the xG+xA ranking in the league for the last 5 games. Despite the fact that I picked Real Madrid as the source of premium option this fantasy La Liga weekend, I can't ignore Messi who is in superb form now capable of doing everything on his own.

 

ALTERNATIVE PICK


Karim Benzema

The Frenchman trails only Messi in all possible ratings. He is very close to him in xG terms if we consider only the last 5 games. 
 

DIFFERENTIALS

 

  • Lucas Perez (Alaves, 6.0) — has a fantastic scoring streak as he doesn't leave the pitch without a goal for 7 games in a row.

  • Oscar Plano (Valladolid, 6.4) — Real's playmaker has 3+2 and sits in the 25th place in xG in La Liga.

  • Sergio Herrera (Osasuna, 5.7) — Athletic has one of the worst offensive stats on the road, therefore it seems sensible to pick the Osasuna's goalkeeper.

 

CRyl7
Author

CRyl7

Sports fan and fantasy sports fanatic. Loves statistics and tries to find the right way of applying it in fantasy sports. Winner of Fanteam Premier League Experience Tournament in 2018.

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