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3 months ago

Fanteam Single EPL [GW30] + FA CUP [QF] Tournaments: Goalkeeper Value Analysis

Football is not a high-scoring type of sport, meaning we don't have a privilege of multiple projections for each player to make our fantasy lifes much easier. Due to FanTeam football scoring, goalkeepers is one position that is more prone to more or less accurate point projections compared to other positions. In this article, I go over the methodology to calculate saves numbers and potential value for each goalkeeper of the slate. If you find the math too heavy on you, just scroll down to the very bottom of the page for an easy-to-read chart that will help you pick the right goalkeeper based on your team composition.

No Weekly Monster this weekend, so I decided to research single match tournaments and include FA CUP duels with EPL teams facing each other. Middlesbrough - Chelsea and Nottingham Forest - Liverpool games are exluded because I don't have the necessary stats for Championship teams.

 

Calculating Goalkeeper Projections

First of all, we have clean sheet odds, chances to concede 1.5+ goals and chances to win from bookies at our disposal. Also, there is a lot of useful information about saves, which is the most important aspect of Fanteam GK scoring (each save is worth 0.5 points).

I predict the number of saves for every goalkeeper in the slate based each team's game style and possible possession %. 

We can't just simply take the average number of saves for each goalkeeper and use it for every slate because there are different types of matches. Every team can play differently depending on the location, the opponent, form, etc., which can influence how many saves a goalkeeper is likely to make. 

This model for predicted saves is based on possession. If we correctly predict how a team is likely to play their next game, we can use the save data from previous matches that were similar in terms of possession. 

For my analysis I single out 3 possession categories:

• team has >55% possession;
• team has 45%-55% possession;
• team has <45% possession.

I predict possession percentages based on previous performances of the current season.

Read more: FanTeam GW30 transfers

Now that we have a prediction of how each team is likely to perform against their current opponent, I also have to mention that it is football we are talking about.

Xhaka can get a red card in the 7th minute (lol, I hope it won't be an exact projection, because the Gooners will hate me for that) or Wolves can score an early goal and games will play out differently. We can't see into the future, but this method gives us enough grounds to try and predict the number of saves. 

Pred SoT MIN — a minimum number of predicted shots on target based on stats through this season 
Pred SoT MAX — a maximum number of predicted shots on target based on stats through this season 
Pred Goals — predicted goals based on bookie odds
PSoT-PG MIN  Pred SoT MIN - Pred Goals
PSoT-PG MAX — Pred SoT MAX - Pred Goals

I have analyzed the stats based on projected possession and taken the number of shots on target for each team just from the matches falling within the same possession category.

I've also considered the current form of each team and where the game is going to be played. In the next part of our analysis, I will look at opponent stats. 

Each shot on target can become a goal, so we should exclude predicted goals from this sheet, leaving us with just potential saves. 

If we're talking about predicted goals, it is based on bookies odds. When we subtract predicted goals from predicted shots on target, we get potential saves. Here we determined an attacking potential and we will go back to these numbers later, but now we have to analyze the defensive potential of each team.

Predicted Save MIN — a minimum number of predicted saves based on stats through this season 
Predicted Save MAX — a maximum number of predicted saves based on stats through this season 

I did the same thing with saves here. Selected matches with similar possession percentages played by a given team this season and looked at how many saves each goalkeeper had made in those.

Now that we have a range of predicted saves based on the team's defensive potential, let's do a little math and merge the two. 

PSoT-PG MIN  Pred SoT MIN - Pred Goals
PSoT-PG MAX — Pred SoT MAX - Pred Goals
Save MIN — a minimum number of predicted saves based on stats through this season
Save MAX — a maximum number of predicted saves based on stats through this season 
APS MIN — the average number between PSoT-PG MIN & Save MIN
APS MAX — the average number between PSoT-PG MAX & Save MAX

Let's look at the first row of the sheet above so that I can explain how it works. 

[0.57 - 3.57] is the predicted range of shots on target for WOL (LEE's opponent).
[3.00 - 5.00] is the predicted range of saves for Meslier.
[1.79 - 4.29] is the average between the two previous ranges and my final projection, where we consider the attacking potential of the 1st team and the defensive potential of the 2nd team.

If we put it simply, my calculations show that Meslier is likely 2 to 4 saves against Wolves. 

Now let's take other aspects of GK scoring on Fanteam into account. 

CS (%) — chances to keep a clean sheet
FP (CS) — predicted Fantasy Points for a clean sheet (+4)
APS MIN — the average number between PSoT-PG MIN & Save MIN
APS MAX — the average number between PSoT-PG MAX & Save MAX
FP (APS MIN) — predicted Fantasy Points for Average Predicted Saves (MIN, +0.5 for each)
FP (APS MAX)  predicted Fantasy Points for Average Predicted Saves (MAX, +0.5 for each)
>1.5CG (%) — chances to concede more than 1.5 goals 
FP (CG) — predicted Fantasy Points for possbile conceded 1.5+ goals (-1 for each 2 CG)
WIN (%) — clean Sheet odds (+0.3 for win)
FP (WIN) — predicted Fantasy Points for possbile victory (+0.3)

Σ PFP MIN — a minimum sum of predicted Fantasy Points for goalkeeper
Σ PFP MAX — a maximum sum of predicted Fantasy Points for goalkeeper

These parameters include +2 points for 60+ minutes played as well. Please, remember that these numbers show us the probabilities for good/bad performances rather than exact fantasy points. 

Value MIN — ΣPFP MIN / Price
Value MAX — ΣPFP MAX / Price

Final Analysis

It's hard to exclude some goalkeepers from a watchlist this time and compare them because single tournaments are very tricky and even low-potential players can make a difference. So I just mention those goalkeepers whose value and potential I like the most. Please be aware that I recalculated Pursuit prices from -1.04 type to classic view but each player with this type of price has an alternative classic cost. You can see them if you download a file with player prices in the lobby's tournament. 

Crystal Palace goalkeeper (Butland or Guaita, it doesn't really matter) looks more valuable than his colleague from Spurs. Lloris is more expensive and Tottenham's opponent (West Ham) seems much stronger than laclustre Everton.

Jose Sa and Schmeichel have the same prices as Butland/Guaita but I like the Eagles' goalkeeper much more. I think I don't need to mention Leicester' poor defence. Wolves are really strong but I expect Leeds not to be as naive as they were under Marcelo Bielsa. So I guess they will adopt a more counter-attacking style than usual. My prediction is that they will be challenge Wolves' chances to keep a clean sheet tonight.

I wouldn't expect a clean sheet from either Fabianski and Raya, but I definitely like their potential to make a lot of saves this time around. 

Southampton will face Man City in the FA CUP quarter-final and considering their good performances against the Citizens of the current season (2 draws), I really like Caballero's value (it seems he will play this time). Man City have failed to score more than one goal both times against them, so I think the story may repeat. 

 
Montafly
Author

Montafly

Matvey, also known as Montafly is a big fantasy fan, Excel master and music lover who likes making useful spreadsheets and digging up interesting statistics for fantasy games. He has been playing DFS since 2019 on FanTeam and for 10 years on FPL. FanTeam's 2019 Winter Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. FanTeam's 2021 Spring Championship of Fantasy Football finalist and prize-winner. 38th in FanTeam EURO 2020 £1M Game

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