Daily Fantasy

2 weeks ago

FanTeam's 100K Monster Preview: GW5

Gameweeks right after International breaks are hard to predict. Players might be back with knocks, some are worn out after lengthy flights and time zone adjustements. COVID doesn't make it any easier with the prospect of quarantine for many returnees. I urge to go rather differential this week playing at FanTeam, with many outcomes unclear and no clear stand-out captaincy option. FanTeam are offering a staggering €100K guarantee in their Weekly Monster, so we have a lot to play for. Read on to find out my recommendations for this week's daily contests.

 

Matches & Bookie Lines 

Home Away 1 X 2 CS H CS A >2.5 H >2.5 A
CHE SOU 64.2 20.3 15.5 38.0 12.5 37.5 9.3
LEI AVL 53.4 24.4 22.2 30.6 15.3 30.2 13.0
NEW MUN 19.7 23.0 57.3 16.1 36.3 10.2 30.2
SHU FUL 46.7 28.2 25.1 39.1 25.8 17.8 8.8
WBA BUR 38.7 28.5 32.7 31.7 28.6 15.3 12.7
MCI ARS 69.2 17.8 12.9 35.8 9.3 45.7 10.3
CRY BHA 35.8 28.9 35.4 30.6 30.4 13.7 13.6
TOT WHU 59.1 23.0 17.9 35.4 14.1 32.6 10.2
LEE WOL 37.7 28.5 33.8 31.3 28.8 14.8 13.2

Legend

  • CS H - Clean Sheets Home
  • CS A - Clean Sheets Away
  • >2.5 H - Total over 2.5 Goals Home
  • >2.5 A - Total over 2.5 Goals Away

I find myself in a tough spot, I can’t think of any premium assets to recommend this week! Tottenham are obvious candidates, of course, but it looks like every single colleague has mentioned them in their daily and FPL preview. You may find a lot of data on how Kane and Co are the best in terms of many attacking metrics, but I am not convinced this week, to be honest. It will take more convincing from Jose to make me a believer in his new attacking approach.

Besides, West Ham have been quite solid defensively with a change to a 5-man backline proving rather successful. They have conceded the least number of big chances in their opening 4 fixtures (4) and boast the best xGC in the league (3,07). If you multi-entry, I still suggest you enter a few Tottenham attacking stacks though. 

Read more: FanTeam's 100K Monster Captains: GW5
Alas, I think I will scrap the Premium section altogether as I don’t see City and Chelsea (the priciest assets alongside Tottenham) dominating their opponents this week. Manchester United deserves a mention simply because many will be ignoring them due to their horrendous form. Technically, they fall in the premium category as well, and I am tempted to target a weak Newcastle defense with an offensive United stack in some of my teams.

So instead of the usual Premium section, I will recommend two differential options alongside a traditional value stack.

 

VALUE

Aston Villa

Grealish (MF, 7.9) – Watkins (FW, 7.7) – Barkley (MF, 6.9). 22,5% of the budget

I believe the Villains will be full of confidence going into this game, and I see the trio of Grealish-Watkins-Barkley as value this week. Leicester have looked vulnerable against West Ham, and there is no reason to believe the Villains can’t do the same. I am expecting an even game here for sure with the outcome (and FanTeam impact points) far from being as certain as the bookies see it. 

Leicester are given a 53% to win while Villa has a 22% chance of walking away with a victory

The Villa’s talisman — Grealish (7.9) — has taken 9 shots in his 3 games played, 8 of those coming from inside the box, scoring twice with a 1,33 non-penalty xG. With Barkley’s arrival, he will concentrate of his attacking duties more rather than trying to piece the midfield and attack together. Although his 10 chances created so far look promising as far as his assist potential is concerned.

Watkins (7.7) has had 5 big chances in his 3 starts for the club, scoring 3 times (all against Liverpool) on his 10 shots (10 in the box). Putting three goals past the champions might be the ultimate boost to gain confidence playing against Premier League boys week in, week out. 

Barkley (6.9) was the furthest on the Villa team against Liverpool, registering 6 penalty area touches, 6 shots (4 in the box), 1 big chance and getting on the scoresheet once. He might be very low-owned and offers a nice differential option as a standalone pick as well if he retains his place in the #10 slot. 

Also consider: Leeds against Wolves

 

DIFFERENTIAL #1

Arsenal

Aubameyang (MF, 7) – Lacazette (FW, 6.5). 13,5% of the budget

Arsenal are the obvious differential option this week based on their price and City’s woeful defending this campaign. Coming at 7 and 6.5, Aubameyang and Lacazette are more than capable of hurting City, who have conceded 10 big chance and 6,59 xG in just 3 games. Pep’s troops will shore up the defences eventually, but it looks like it will take some time. 

Lacazette is ahead or even with his teammate in terms of many attacking stats: goals (3-1), penalty area touches (19-16), big chances (5-0), shots (6-6). Arsenal’s attack isn’t mindblowing as it stands now, but these two are the go-to-guys if you are aiming at targeting City’s defense this week. 

Aubameyang has a 38% chance to score 

DIFFERENTIAL #2

Burnley

Barnes (FW, 7.7)/Wood (FW, 8.7) – McNeil (MF, 8)

Burnley will be playing against, arguably, the worst defense (although Fulham is a worthy contender) this week. Shaun Dyche’s men desperately need points as they sit on 0 after 3 gameweeks. With their key man Tarkowski likely back at the heart of defense, Burnley will try to limit the hosts chances to a minimum. West Bromwich have a miniscule 2,21 xG (league’s worst) up to date, so a win-to-nil is a possibility here. An ugly 1-0 is what we love/hate Burnley for, right?

McNeil plays full 90 minutes (+1 point on Fanteam) and takes corners. Barnes (7,7) is expected to start for Burnley, he is Claret’s penalty-taker and is 1 million heaper than his teammate Wood (7.7). 

Wood has probably been their best player so far, scoring once and accumulating 0,82 xG. 6 shots (6), 2 big chances in 3 matches isn’t much, but when did Burnley need much to nick an odd header away? 

Any combination of these 3 is viable this week, in my opinion.

Read more: FPL: 5 Transfer Targets before GW5

Alternatives: Southampton (Chelsea away) and Newcastle (MU at home) are very cheap this week

Wood is given a 40% chance to score 

Value Defensive Stack

Sheffield – 16.9 mln (Baldock+Stevens)

  • To keep a clean sheet – 39%

  • xG Conceded (last 4) – 5,51

  • xG Opponents (last 4) – 4,12

Sheffield United aren't looking too good defensively, and that is the only thing that can keep them alive in the Premier League as their attacking options are sparse. Fulham are all over the place with no understanding of how they want to attack, and this is exactly the fixture where we may see good ol' United shut shop like many a time last year. Sheffield have proved a thought nut to crack for many more quality sides than Fulham, I envision a frustrating evening for the visitors. Both recommended wing-back are always looking to fly forward and may be a thorn in Fulham's weak backline. 

 

Differential Defensive Stack 

Burnley  – 13.2 mln. (Taylor+Tarkowski)

  • To keep a clean sheet – 28%

  • xG Conceded (last 3) – 4,18

  • xG Opponents (last 4) – 2,21

As already discussed above, Burnley will dig-in and make it hard for misfiring hosts to break down. Tarkowski is a danger at set-pieces (20 headers, 2 goals last season) and Taylor can whip a cross in with 2 chances created and 1 fantasy assist to his name this campaign. 
 

Enjoy the Classic tournament on Fanteam  this week with more than €100K up for grabs, and may your picks lead you to glory!

🎟 Get a FREE €2 entry! 🎟

Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch mostly on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2000 tournaments played and a 40% ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.