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1 week ago

Fanteam's £100K Second Chance Game: Best & Differential Picks

Missed me? Or at least missed my articles & spreadsheets? I hope so, because personally, I have really missed consistent fantasy and I'm impatient to analyze the new season-long EPL tournament. It's good to have another go if things aren't going well in the main £1M Fantasy Premier League tournament. To be honest, it was pretty easy to fail because of these endless postponements and the inability to plan even short-term. Everyone with a verified Fanteam account gets one team for free and you can add more if you want for £10 each, let's try to win some cash!

I will start with my easy-to-read watchlist while providing you with some key stats for the last 6 gameweeks for players I've chosen. At the end of the article, you will find some of my thoughts on players I have selected as well as team composition best fitting for the tournament.  

 

Watchlist

Time Played, Start and Full-time are for the last 6 played matches. My Rating & Status are my subjective estimation of the players' potential.

Read more: 5 Essential Tips for Fanteam's Second Chance Game

Goal Threat Stats

(Last 6 Matches)

xG — Expected Goal
xG (NP) — Expected Goal Non-Penalty
xG (NP/Shot) — Expected Goal Non-Penalty per Shot
Shot (IB) — Shot Inside Box
Shot (OT) — Shot on Target
BC — Big Chance
xG Inv — Expected Goals Involvement

Read more: Five Players to Start Second Chance Game With

Distribution Stats

(Last 6 Matches)

xA — Expected Assist
xA Inv — Expected Assist Involvement

 

General Thoughts and Tips

This tournament is different from classic EPL because of the Safety Net feature and no bench players. We should pay less attention to cheap players and plugs because there is no more risk to lose a player.

Also, we shouldn't pick players with low attacking potential hoping he can be useful someday. Players we pick have to deliver right here, right now and they all should have a worthy Safety Net replacement. Due to the Covid situation, unexpected absences of some players in the starting XI is commonplace now.

I also feel we have to try to use fewer stacks from one team than we used to. We have the Safety Net but no one will save our teams if some match is canceled again. Fewer stacks — less risk. It will be pretty hard to do it with teams like Man City (because on their current form you want to have 3 Citizens on your team), but if you can avoid stacking, do it.

I've mentioned just 2 goalkeepers in my watchlist because I really don't see any good alternatives to de Gea and Lloris.

Leicester have big problems with all the injuries, especially in defence, so even the double gameweek doesn't make me pick Schmeichel.

Brentford, Watford & Burnley concede a lot. Chelsea's defensive form is far from good right now and they will miss 2 matches in 24-25 GWs. Brighton will miss one match too, and I really don't want to pick Sanchez against Chelsea & Leicester in their next 3 games. David and Hugo will have Double Gameweeks and they are not as expensive as Ederson or Alisson.

For the same reason, I didn't include a lot of defenders in my list. I believe we have to play this tournament with 3-4-3/3-5-2 formation because in the current situation, it's hard to find good value among defensive players. Almost everyone suffers from injuries and illnesses, so it might affect the number of clean sheets. Notice how the number of clean sheets decreased in the last 4 GWs compared to the previous periods.

GW CS % GW CS %
#1 5 25% #12 5 25%
#2 8 40% #13 7 39%
#3 4 20% #14 4 20%
#4 9 45% #15 4 20%
#5 7 35% #16 7 39%
#6 4 20% #17 4 29%
#7 5 25% #18 3 38%
#8 7 35% #19 3 21%
#9 3 15% #20 3 21%
#10 5 25% #21 2 13%
#11 6 30%      

So I believe we must use fewer defenders for now and pick the strongest of them. It won't be too difficult for us to find them, because all of you know who they are. Cancelo has been excellent and so has Alexander-Arnold. The latter got sick recently and there's no information on his availability, but you may go one week with Robertson,  who is in form too.

Man City have an excellent streak with 11 wins in a row and 6 clean sheets in these matches. The question is, should we risk picking  2 defenders from one team. Laporte has brought in 4 attacking returns since the start of the season, his price is acceptable just like his shooting form. His Safety Net replacement is Stones and Walker, which is solid as well. 

Tottenham is in solid form too and except Lloris, we have 4 good options among the defenders. Reguilon will be the most popular, Emerson will be the first after him. But Sanchez with great underlying stats for a defender and even Davies deserve our attention as well. If you want to play riskier, you should choose between them.

 

Attack with Attackers

Attacking line has to be our focus. Man Utd have easy fixtures (at first sight), and I'm sure that Ronaldo will have a big ownership. But I've seen their matches against Wolves and Newcastle and I wasn't impressed by their level of play. Man Utd have scored more than one goal just two times in their 9 last matches, and I can easily imagine how they can struggle against Aston Villa, Brentford, and West Ham. I wouldn't pick Ronaldo for all of my teams, but at the same time, I can't ignore him completely.

Considering Man City's form, I am ready to pick anyone from their attack but Sterling looks like the perfect option to me. His price is moderate for his potential, he has brought in a lot of attacking returns recently and his Safety Net replacement is Foden. I'm sure Sterling will play a lot soon because of Mahrez's absence and Torres' transfer out.

Jota is the must-have and there's nothing to discuss here after Salah & Mane had gone to the African Cup of Nations.

It would have been difficult to choose between Son & Kane, but the former is injured until February. Let's just pick Harry and also take a closer look at Lucas Moura. He's cheap and has to be nailed while Son is injured. Brazilian's 1+2 against Crystal Palace showed us that Lucas can offer us good value.

West Ham won't play any double gameweeks any time soon, but I'm not sure we have to pick players only from DGW teams. The form has to be our priority and Bowen is definitely in good form just like Saka and Mount. Saka can face 1 or 2 blanks in the 6 next gameweeks, but his form deserves to be noted. Mason will definitely miss two matches in 4 upcoming gameweeks, while Chelsea — Leicester in GW27 could be postponed as well. You may pick them just for a couple of matches but I have my doubts.

Even though Watford concede a lot, scoring is not a problem for them. That's why we can't avoid the Dennis & King pair. They are cheap and very effective. It's difficult to compare them because a couple of GWs ago King looked much better in terms of underlying stats, but Dennis just kept scoring. King is a safer pick because of his higher price, but Dennis' potential I like so much more.

Leicester have a lot of injuries in defence and in their attacking line. Their attacking potential may be decreased because of this, but I can't pass by Maddison's form. 4+5 in the last 6 matches, he's just phenomenal. I would also consider Patson Daka since he's the only Foxes striker left after Vardy got injured and Iheanacho left for the AFCON. We have to wait for the news about Daka's fitness thought. Lookman has scored 3 goals in his 4 last appearances and he deserves our attention as a differential pick too.

Saint-Maximin, Gray and Maupay are my last differential options for the upcoming tournament. Allan is the main attacking player after Wilson has suffered yet another injury. Newcastle aren't the best team but their upcoming fixtures are screaming goals. Everton have lost 8 times in their 12 last matches, so it will be madness to pick Calvert-Lewin for 8.1 million with such awful team results. Gray for 5.9 on the other hand is a moderate option considering Everton's next matches and their possible double gameweeks (they still have 3 unassigned matches).

Maupay is a starter now, he plays full matches and has brought 3+1 in his 5 last matches. All of his upcoming opponents don't have a strong defence and even Chelsea don't look invincible at the moment. There is still a problem with his blank in GW24, but you have free transfers to deal with it.

I hope all of us will have fun building squads for this tournament and we won't face any more postponements until the end of the season. Let's hope for the best!

Good luck to all of you!

 

Montafly
Author

Montafly

Matvey, also known as Montafly is a big fantasy fan, Excel master and music lover who likes making useful spreadsheets and digging up interesting statistics for fantasy games. He has been playing DFS since 2019 on FanTeam and for 10 years on FPL. FanTeam's 2019 Winter Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. FanTeam's 2021 Spring Championship of Fantasy Football finalist and prize-winner. 38th in FanTeam EURO 2020 £1M Game

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