FanTeam, Daily Fantasy

2 months ago

Fanteam's Monster [GW4]: Odds, Stacks, Matchups & Captains

In this Weekly Monster preview format, I look at average prices of defensive and attacking options to make the stack selection process a bit easier for managers playing at FanTeam. I also single out and analyze a few matchups where both teams deserve our attention as far as Daily Fantasy is concerned. My Captaincy picks for the Weekly Monster can be found under each matchup as well.  

 

Bookies Odds

Team #1 Win #1 (%) CS#1 (%) G#1 Team #2 Win #2 (%) CS#2 G#2
ARS 64% 42% 2.00 NOR 14% 14% 0.87
BRE 34% 33% 1.08 BHA 35% 34% 1.11
LEI 16% 14% 0.97 MCI 62% 38% 1.98
MUN 79% 50% 2.54 NEW 7% 8% 0.69
SOU 33% 23% 1.35 WHU 39% 26% 1.48
WAT 29% 29% 1.01 WOL 41% 36% 1.25
CHE 74% 55% 2.11 AVL 8% 12% 0.61
LEE 21% 15% 1.19 LIV 54% 30% 1.93
EVE 56% 41% 1.68 BUR 18% 19% 0.90

• CS (%) — Clean Sheet Probablity
• G — Predicted Goals based on Bookie Odds

 

Arsenal — Norwich

Arsenal

Best defensive pick: Tierney — DEF, 9.3
Alternative defensive pick: Cedric — DEF, 8.7

Best attacking pick: Smith-Rowe — MID, 11.3
Alternative attacking pick: Pepe — MID, 12.0
Differential: Odegaard — MID, 11.0

Best Stack: Tierney + Smith-Rowe + Pepe
Alternative Stack: Cedric + Tierney + Aubameyang
Differential Stack: —

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: Tierney

Considering Arsenal's poor form, it's hard to choose a secure captain. You have to decide between Aubameyang, Pepe and Smith-Rowe and this choice won't be simple.

Norwich

Best defensive pick: Krul — GK, 5.6
Alternative defensive picks: Aarons — DEF, 5.1 
Differential: Gibson — DEF, 4.7

Best attacking pick: Pukki — FWD, 6.7
Alternative attacking pick: Cantwell — MID, 6.4
Differential: —

Best Stack: Krul + Pukki + Cantwell
Alternative Stack: —
Differential Stack: —

Secure Captain: 
Differential Captain: —

Norwich have showed a terrible level of play away from home against Man City, so I wouldn't pick them a lot.

Read more: The Underlying Perspective:Tips for Fanteam's Weekly Monster [GW4]

Brentford — Brighton

Brentford

Best defensive pick: Raya — GK, 7.9
Alternative defensive pick: Henry — DEF, 7.6
Differential: —

Best attacking pick: Toney — FWD, 9.0
Alternative attacking pick: Mbeumo — MID, 8.7
Differential: Canos — MID, 8.5

Best Stack: Raya + Henry + Toney
Alternative Stack: Henry + Mbeumo + Toney
Differential Stack: Canos + Ajer + Pinnock

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: —

 

Brighton

Best defensive pick: Duffy — DEF, 6.9
Alternative defensive pick: Dunk — DEF, 7.4; March — DEF, 7.2
Differential: Webster — DEF, 6.8

Best attacking pick: Gross — MID, 8.4
Alternative attacking pick: Maupay — FWD, 8.9; Trossard — MID, 8.3
Differential: Mac Allister — MID, 8.2

Best Stack: Duffy + Dunk + Gross
Alternative Stack: March + Trossard + Maupay
Differential Stack: Webster + Gross + Mac Allister

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: Duffy

 

Leicester — Man City

Leicester

Best defensive pick: Schmeichel — GK, 5.9
Alternative defensive pick: Pereira — DEF, 5.6
Differential: 

Best attacking pick: Vardy — FWD, 7.5
Alternative attacking pick: Barnes — MID, 6.8
Differential: Tielemans — MID, 6.4

Best Stack: Schmeichel + Barnes + Vardy
Alternative Stack: Pereira + Tielemans + Vardy
Differential Stack: —

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: —

 

Man City

Best defensive pick: Cancelo — DEF, 8.7
Alternative defensive pick: Laporte — DEF, 8.1
Differential: Walker — DEF, 8.5

Best attacking pick: Torres — MID, 11.1
Alternative attacking pick: Mahrez — MID, 11.5; Grealish — MID, 11.4
Differential: Gundogan — MID, 10.6

Best Stack: Cancelo + Mahrez + Torres
Alternative Stack: Cancelo + Walker + Torres
Differential Stack: Dias + Laporte + Gundogan

Secure Captain: Torres, Mahrez
Differential Captain: Cancelo, Gundogan

  • CS, % — Clean Sheet odds
  • Min / Aver / Max Price — Goalkeeper & Defenders Price

* Average price is calculated based on probable starters. Price is based on players with good scoring potential. Players with low-scoring potential (like defensive midfielders) and bad underlying data were excluded so that the price reflects the most likely attacking stacks a manager would opt for.
 

Man Utd — Newcastle

Man Utd

Best defensive pick: Shaw — DEF, 9.7
Alternative defensive pick: Maguire — DEF, 9.5
Differential: Varane — DEF, 9.4

Best attacking pick: Bruno — MID, 13.5
Alternative attacking pick: Ronaldo — FWD, 13.3, Greenwood — MID, 12.9
Differential: Pogba — MID, 12.1

Best Stack: Shaw + Bruno + Ronaldo
Alternative Stack: Bruno + Maguire + Varane
Differential Stack: Pogba + Greenwood + Ronaldo

Secure Captain: Bruno / Ronaldo / Greenwood
Differential Captain: Shaw / Pogba

I believe Ronaldo will play from the start, but anyway, we'll know the line-ups before the slate start.

Newcastle

Best defensive pick: Woodman — GK, 5.0
Alternative defensive pick: Ritchie — DEF, 4.9
Differential: —

Best attacking pick: Wilson — FWD, 6.7
Alternative attacking pick: Saint-Maximin — MID, 6.5
Differential: Willock — MID, 5.8

Best Stack: Woodman + Saint-Maximin + Wilson
Alternative Stack: Ritchie + Saint-Maximin + Wilson
Differential Stack: Willock + Saint-Maximin + Wilson

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: 

Read more: FPL and FanTeam GW4 Wildcard Must-haves

Southampton — West Ham

Southampton

Best defensive pick: McCarthy — GK, 6.8
Alternative defensive pick: Walker-Peters — DEF, 6.7
Differential: 

Best attacking pick: Adam Armstrong — FWD, 9.1
Alternative attacking pick: Ward-Prowse — MID, 8.7; Adams — FWD, 8.9
Differential: Djenepo — MID, 7.9

Best Stack: McCarthy + Ward-Prowse + Adam Armstrong
Alternative Stack: Walker-Peters + Adams + Adam Armstrong
Differential Stack: Djenepo + Elyounoussi + Adam Armstrong

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: Adam Armstrong

It has to be another goalscoring match for Southampton, so feel free to experiment with their attacking stacks.

West Ham

Best defensive pick: Cresswell — DEF, 7.7
Alternative defensive pick: Coufal — DEF, 7.5
Differential: Dawson — DEF, 6.9

Best attacking pick: Antonio — FWD, 10.6
Alternative attacking pick: Benrahma — MID, 9.8; Fornals — MID, 9.7
Differential: Bowen — MID, 9.2

Best Stack: Cresswell + Fornals + Antonio
Alternative Stack: Coufal + Bowen + Antonio
Differential Stack: Cresswell + Dawson + Bowen

Secure Captain: Antonio
Differential Captain: Fornals, Benrahma, Bowen

Each player from West Ham's attacking four has at least one attacking return. Now it definitely has to be Bowen's turn!

Watford — Wolves

Watford

Best defensive pick: Bachmann — GK, 6.9
Alternative defensive pick: Masina — DEF, 6.4
Differential: —

Best attacking pick: Sarr — MID, 8.0
Alternative attacking pick: Dennis — FWD, 7.9
Differential: Cleverley — MID, 7.3

Best Stack: Bachmann + Masina + Sarr
Alternative Stack: Bachmann + Sarr + Dennis
Differential Stack: Ngakia + Cleverley + Sarr

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: 

 

Wolves

Best defensive pick: Semedo — DEF, 7.9
Alternative defensive pick: Saiss — DEF, 7.8
Differential: Kilman — DEF, 7.4

Best attacking pick: Adama Traore — MID, 8.9
Alternative attacking pick: Raul Jimenez — FWD, 9.3
Differential: Trincao — MID, 8.5

Best Stack: Semedo + Saiss + Adama Traore
Alternative Stack: Semedo + Adama Traore + Jimenez
Differential Stack: Ruben Neves + Saiss + Kilman

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: Adama Traore

There's some risk Raul Jimenez won't play and it could affect Wolves' attacking potential negatively.

  • Goal — Predicted Goals based on Bookie Odds
  • Min / Aver / Max Price — Midfielder & Forwards Price

* Average price is calculated based on probable starters. Price is based on players with good scoring potential. Players with low-scoring potential (like defensive midfielders) and bad underlying data were excluded so that the price reflects the most likely attacking stacks a manager would opt for.
 

Chelsea — Aston Villa

Chelsea

Best defensive pick: Chilwell — DEF, 9.9
Alternative defensive pick: Azpilicueta — DEF, 9.4
Differential: Rudiger — DEF, 9.3

Best attacking pick: Lukaku — FWD, 13.1
Alternative attacking pick: Havertz — MID, 12.5 
Differential: —

Best Stack: Chilwell + Azpilicueta + Lukaku
Alternative Stack: Chilwell + Havertz + Lukaku
Differential Stack: Mount + Havertz + Lukaku

Secure Captain: Lukaku, Havertz
Differential Captain: Mount, Chilwell, Azpilicueta

Azpilicueta can play on the right-wing because of Reece James' suspension, so his attacking potential has to increase. That's why I like Cesar a lot this time.

Aston Villa

Best defensive pick: Martinez — GK, 5.2
Alternative defensive pick: Young — DEF, 5.0
Differential: —

Best attacking pick: Ings — FWD, 6.4
Alternative attacking pick: El Ghazi — MID, 5.7
Differential: 

Best Stack: Martinez + El Ghazi + Ings
Alternative Stack: —
Differential Stack: 

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: —

Aston Villa looked rather awful so far and they can miss a lot of their players this weekend. Chelsea is so strong at the moment, so I would avoid all of the away-side assets.

Read more: Fanteam Rookie Blog: Episode 6

Leeds — Liverpool

Leeds

Best defensive pick: Meslier — GK, 6.1
Alternative defensive pick: Ayling — DEF, 5.8
Differential: —

Best attacking pick: Bamford — FWD, 7.9
Alternative attacking pick: Raphinha — MID, 7.6
Differential: Harrison — MID, 7.4

Best Stack: Meslier + Raphinha + Bamford
Alternative Stack: Ayling + Raphinha + Bamford
Differential Stack: —

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: —

 

Liverpool

Best defensive pick: Alexander-Arnold — DEF, 8.6
Alternative defensive pick: Robertson — DEF, 8.5, van Dijk — 8.1 
Differential: Konate — DEF, 8.0

Best attacking pick: Salah — MID, 11.9
Alternative attacking pick: Mane — MID, 11.0; Jota — MID, 11.2
Differential: Elliott — MID, 9.6

Best Stack: Alexander-Arnold + Salah + Jota
Alternative Stack: Robertson + Mane + Salah
Differential Stack #1: Alexander-Arnold + Robertson + Elliott
Differential Stack #2: Alexander-Arnold + van Dijk + Konate

Secure Captain: Salah, Mane, Jota
Differential Captain: Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, van Dijk

Matip has many goal attempts in the last matches, but he won't be as popular as Trent/Robertson/VVD, so I like his pick this time. I mentioned Konate instead of him above just because of the Safety Net system. Konate is a centre-back too and he's more expensive than Matip. We won't have line-ups for this match, so it makes sense to take precautions and pick Konate just in case.

Everton — Burnley

Everton

Best defensive pick: Digne — DEF, 8.8
Alternative defensive pick: Coleman — DEF, 8.4
Differential: Keane — DEF, 8.2

Best attacking pick: Calvert-Lewin — FWD, 10.9
Alternative attacking pick: Gray — MID, 10.0
Differential: Doucoure — MID, 9.2

Best Stack: Digne + Coleman + Calvert-Lewin
Alternative Stack: Digne + Gray + Calvert-Lewin
Differential Stack: Digne + Keane + Richarlison

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: Calvert-Lewin, Digne

 

Burnley

Best defensive pick: Pope — GK, 6.5
Alternative defensive pick: Tarkowski — DEF, 6.1
Differential: Lowton — DEF, 6.0

Best attacking pick: Wood — FWD, 7.5
Alternative attacking pick: McNeil — MID, 7.1
Differential: Ashley Barnes — FWD, 6.9

Best Stack: Pope + McNeil + Wood
Alternative Stack: Lowton + Ashley Barnes + Wood
Differential Stack: Pope + Tarkowski + Westwood 

Secure Captain: —
Differential Captain: —

Montafly
Author

Montafly

Matvey, also known as Montafly is a big fantasy fan, Excel master and music lover who likes making useful spreadsheets and digging up interesting statistics for fantasy games. He has been playing DFS since 2019 on FanTeam and for 10 years on FPL. FanTeam's 2019 Winter Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. FanTeam's 2021 Spring Championship of Fantasy Football finalist and prize-winner. 38th in FanTeam EURO 2020 £1M Game

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