FPL, FanTeam

1 month ago

FPL and FanTeam Wildcard and Transfers: Forwards

In this article, I continue my position-by-position analysis. I have already discussed goalkeepers and defenders as well as midfielders. Last but not least, I will now be discussing forwards.

Our stats man Mashulkin has done some tremendous work collating key stats by player and team over the last 6 gameweeks. We believe that the stats from the last 6 gameweeks reflect the players' current form and must be considered in coalition with the upcoming fixture difficulty when making your transfer decisions. Make sure you check out his latest GW9 article using the link below!

I have made some graphs from these below which greatly guide my decision making, looking at the top 20 strikers by xG. Thus all stats I refer to relate to the last 6 gameweeks and all prices are FPL and then FanTeam prices respectively. Hope you enjoy it!

Read more: Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet GW9

Threatening Teams

In my midfielders article I already discussed the best attacking teams. They are:

  • Aston Villa
  • Liverpool
  • Tottenham
  • Chelsea
  • Manchester City
  • Leeds

 

These teams give us a wide array of both premium and budget friendly assets. The other teams I called out worth keeping an eye on are:

  • Manchester Utd
  • West Ham

 

Top Dogs

 

Kane’s (£11.0m, £11.3m) 7 goals and 8 assists this season make him the best striker by a distance, so it is no surprise to see him isolated above at the top of the charts. What has made Kane invincible from an FPL perspective is how he has added the dynamism of providing assists too like no other striker, having created 12 chances, 4 of which were big, in the last 6 matches. Only Mitrovic can get close to this with 8 and 2 respectively.

Kane is also top for shots (34), shots on target (13) and is only 2nd to Bamford for shots in the box (22)

 However, his fixture run has taken a sour turn. So managers won’t be deemed mad either way when it comes to holding him or selling him (I sold him…).

The next standout premium option is Vardy (£10.1m, £10.7m). He is 1st for xG (5.57) and big chances (10). And has 3 tantalising fixtures after facing Liverpool, who may also be another good fixture for the Englishman given their extensive injuries at the back. However, Vardy’s output has been highly reliant on penalties this season, which he has seen a high volume and which is unsustainable. He only lies 6th for non-penalty xG (2.7) and 9th for shots (13). A penalty taker is a brilliant asset and Vardy is a proven goal scorer, but with so many budget options knocking the lights out this year, I am not sure he is worth the money.

Take Bamford (£6.1m, £6.9m) for example. At his low price, he is still by far number 1 for non-penalty xG in the last 6 (4.77). Next closest is Kane on 3.83. He is also 1st for shots in the box (24) and joint 2nd for big chances (9). That £4m saving could boost a cheap 4th/5th midfielder into a Ziyech or Bruno. His fixtures are patchy, but they have been all year and that has not stopped him nor Leeds. Being the focal point of such an attacking team, I believe he has the potential to score against anyone.

To try take away the impact of penalties, I look at non-penalty xG and shots in the box above. One man who stands out in both graphs and is unlikely to be on penalties any more is Watkins (£6.1m, 6.3m). Another budget asset and he is marginally behind Kane putting him 3rd for non-penalty xG (3.82). Like Bamford, he is also 2nd for big chances (9) and he is playing in a Villa side who are knocking it out of the park with their attacking statistics and who now have an incredible fixture run until GW15. Only Maupay (38) and Mitrovic (41) can beat his 37 penalty box touches.

At £4mn cheaper, I believe Watkins can match Vardy’s output in the next 6 GWs

Mind you, Watkins won’t be as reliable a captain choice if that’s what you are after.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m, £8.3m) sticks out as the best of the rest in this graph too. Everton have struggled in the last 6 matches as seen in my team graph at the top, with Rodriguez and Richarlison’s absences severely hindering them. But DCL has still plowed on with 4 goals and 1 assist in this period. And as evidenced in the graphs, he is still a standout performer when it comes to xG and shots. With Rodriguez and Richarlison back and Fulham, Leeds and Burnley in the next 3, we can expect to see his 2nd double-digit haul of the season soon.

Creeping up on him is Werner (£9.4m, £9.9m). Having failed to impress at the start of the season, he has turned it around lately with 4 goals and an assist in the last 6. However, his 14 shots, which puts him joint 7th with Jimenez leaves a lot to be desired for me. Personally, I would prefer Ziyech in the middle.

Antonio (£6.2m, £6.4m) does not feature prominently in these graphs as he has only racked up 305mins due to injury. But he has 3 goals from 5 tough matches this season and West Ham have promising attacking figures despite the stern opposition. But they now have an incredible fixture run until GW24 I would argue, with only 3 or 4 highly challenging games in the next 16. If Moyes gives a positive injury update on Friday, I will be all in.

Read more: FPL and FanTeam Wildcard and Transfers: Defenders and Goalkeepers

The Other Guys

A number of other players stand out positively in these graphs and statistically, but haven’t come into my reckoning for the following reasons:

  • Mitrovic – huge shot count but mostly balls lumped up to him that he has to somehow head in, hence his low xG. His fixture run also takes a nasty turn. No thanks
  • Wilson – out of this list Wilson would probably be my favourite pick. He is the Newcastle talisman and is also on penalties, although his non-penalty xG suggests he is reliant on them. Injury concerns and Newcastle having the worst attacking stats are the reasons why he has not made my shortlist. I prefer Watkins, Bamford and Antonio at this price range
  • Abraham – doing well, but always a rotation risk. Unsure if he keeps his place when Pulisic returns replacing Werner on the left
  • Maupay – similar to Wilson in relation to penalties and xG. I like him and Brighton, but the other options at this price are better picks
  • Adams – starting to return on his expected stats and Southampton are flowing. He is now the focal point with Ings out injured. Fixtures and other options at this price point is all that throw me off him

Good luck to all fantasy managers in this time of injury worries and uncertainty. May your picks prove solid returning solid point hauls, hope my articles will have helped you to make the right choice come deadline!

FPL_Pup
Author

FPL_Pup

Sports fan and FPL addict from Ireland (still has not forgiven Thierry Henry). Loves numbers in both studies & profession and has incorporated this into FPL in recent seasons. Has played FPL for 8 seasons, finishing in the top 40k 5 times, with the best finish of 8k. Find on Twitter @FplPup if you have any questions