Football, FPL

1 month ago

FPL: GW33+ Transfer Tips

As the slow GW32+ gave us all a chance to breathe, we must now turn our attention to GW33+ in order to finetune our FPL squads. This gameweek will be followed quickly by GW34+ and GW35+ on Tuesday and Friday respectively. Given this quick turnaround, I have had to write this article before Thursday evening’s games, apologies!

There have been 3 GWs since the return of FPL following the lockdown, which has given us plenty of things to consider. Norwich, Watford, Villa, Bournemouth and Sheffield Utd look off the pace. Manchester Utd, Wolves, Spurs and Everton look resolute. While there have been surprise packages in a rejuvenated Newcastle, Southampton and Burnley, who can’t even get enough bodies to fill their bench.

Taking all this into consideration I will go into depth discussing some transfer suggestions.

 

Manchester United

The problem with Manchester Utd is that you can only select 3 players. Martial (£8.2m) and Rashford (£9.1m) failed to deliver for their owners against Brighton, but so did Bruno (£8.8m) the week before.

I wouldn’t be jumping between there players week-on-week as their points should average out by the end of the season.

But for those who still don’t have a full complement of Manchester Utd players, the pick of the bunch are Martial, Bruno, Rashford, Pogba (£8.3m), Greenwood (£4.4m) and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£5.4m).

Martial, Bruno and Rashford have an expected goal involvement of 1.96, 1.85 and 1.82 respectively in the last 3 GWs which supports my above point on the FPL points eventually averaging out. Pogba playing deeper has managed 0.62 similar to budget option Greenwood’s 0.53. Hence, Pogba is at the bottom of the ladder for me. Greenwood provides an easy way in for those who are cash strapped. While with 6 clean sheets and 3 assists from the last 8 GWs, Wan-Bissaka is a great option for anyone eyeing up a defensive move.

Facing Bournemouth at home, who had just conceded 4 against Newcastle and only have a 72 hours turnaround, has me very excited about Manchester Utd’s attacking options this week. Yet since the restart, Bournemouth sit bottom for big chances, which looks good for those with Manchester Utd defensive assets as well. When picking, just remember to roll the dice and may the luck be on your side!

Chelsea

Pulisic (£7.0m) and Willian (£7.1m) are the stand out options for me. Of the two I prefer Pulisic, who is consistently returning since the restart without needing penalty duties. He is Chelsea’s best attacking outlet both to the eye and statistically.

His 4 shots (3 in the box) was only bested by Antiono (£6.9m) who managed 5. He also had the most penalty box touches (11) for a 2nd week in a row.

Alonso (£6.2m) showed his attacking threat with 3 shots (all in the box) and 4 chances created (a match-high). A good premium defensive option given this threat, but 3 goals conceded show Chelsea’s defensive woes have not disappeared.

Alonso is a nice differential (3.7% owned) with Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), Sheffield Utd (a) and Norwich (h) in the next 4 GWs.

Wolves

Wolves face Arsenal (h), Sheffield Utd (a) and Everton (h) in the next 8 days. Not the worst fixtures, nor are they the best. Many were stung captaining the usually reliable Jimenez(£8.3m) this week, but I would not be throwing my toys out of the cot yet and selling him. He is the joint 3rd highest scoring striker for a reason. Read more on the best forwards according to the point per million ratio.

A dull affair against Aston Villa on Saturday gave Wolves their 7th clean sheet out of 8 since Boly’s (£4.8m) return. Ensuring you have Wolves defensive coverage until the season end is a wise move.

The rotation threatened Traore (£5.8m) was benched again, but he was Wolves' best player once introduced. Whether it is 30 or 90mins, he looks like he will produce something. Having said that, investors need the ability to stomach his inevitable benchings!

 

Newcastle

Someone has spiked the tea at Newcastle. We are still watching the same Steve Bruce team, right? 9 goals in 3 games, albeit against a 10 men Sheffield Utd and a dismal Bournemouth, shows this Newcastle team wants to finish this season on a high note rather than run through the motions. It is such teams we should be investing in. Missing out on a clean sheet in stoppage time was unfortunate, with Bournemouth showing little going forward throughout the game, Lascelles (£4.3m) provides a great budget option ahead of games against West Ham and Watford in the next 3 GWs.

On the other end of the pitch

Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.5m) has scored once and assisted 3 times since the restart.

He carved out 3 chances against Bournemouth (2 of which were big chances). A rested and out of position Ritchie (£5.3m) could do well against West Ham this weekend, who have conceded 2 goals in each of their 3 games since the restart.

Everton

Holgate (£4.3m) provides another great budget option, although the next 4 fixtures are mixed. They face Spurs (a), Southampton (h), Wolves (a) and Villa (h). Everton were unlucky to not keep a 3rd clean sheet with Leicester bagging a freakish goal.

Richarlison (£8.3m) should be over his knock come GW33+, but I believe Machester Utd players and Mahrez (£8.5m) provide better options in this price bracket.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.5m) is losing a lot of love having blanked in the last 3 GWs. I personally am sticking, I have fate in Carlo’s Everton and think it is only a matter of time before he starts scoring again. However, I am keeping Danny Ings (£7.3m) in mind and an exit strategy if his fortunes do not change.

 

Southampton

Ings is a difficult nut to crack. The 2nd most transferred in player at the time of writing, even with Manchester City, Everton and Manchester Utd in the next 3. His dry spell before the suspension of the EPL is long forgotten having scoring 3 times and setting up 1 since the restart. However, over the same period, he has only 0.85xG. This over-performance could be stopped in its tracks against these stronger defences.

Alternatively, we could be looking at Vardy 2.0 where Ings requires few chances in order to score. He has the 2nd best goal conversion rate (23.4%) in the league, with Vardy being #1.

Regardless, he will be one of the most talked-about players ahead of GW36+ where they face Brighton (h) followed by Bournemouth (a) and Sheffield Utd (h) to conclude the season.

 

Burnley

Pope (£5.0m) has the 3rd highest point totals in 2020, crazy! Since the 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Manchester City, he has now racked up 10 and 9 points against Watford and Crystal Palace respectively.

However, there is trouble at the top of Burnley with a disgruntled Sean Dyche challenging the board. Complaining about a lack of investment, he didn’t even bring a full bench to Palace, with only 1 of the substitutes having started a match in the EPL before. Burnley have 4 good fixtures and 2 bad to close out the season. But I think the wheels will have to come off this bus at some stage. It is possible that a weak Watford and Palace flattered Burnley.

For those looking at keepers in this price range I prefer the likely clean sheets offered by De Gea, Lloris and Patricio (all £5.3m).

Final Thoughts

As stated at the start, I am writing this article ahead of the Thursday night fixtures. So for more information on players involved in these games please see last week’s article.

We have 3 GWs over 9 days, so I recommend a strong bench and putting serious considerations into your vice-captains. Owners of Manchester Utd assets will also be pleased to see they have the longest rest periods in between, having played Brighton Tuesday they now play on Saturday, Thursday and the following Monday. More reason for a triple up!

As always, best of luck to everyone, and if you want to reach out to me with any questions DM me on Twitter or create a thread on the website.

FPL_Pup
Author

FPL_Pup

Sports fan and FPL addict from Ireland (still has not forgiven Thierry Henry). Loves numbers in both studies & profession and has incorporated this into FPL in recent seasons. Has played FPL for 8 seasons, finishing in the top 40k 5 times, with the best finish of 8k. Find on Twitter @FplPup if you have any questions