Football

2 years ago

Gameweek 33 EPL Fantasy Preview. Stacks, Differentials, Captains

In our traditional preview, we will focus on picking the right defensive stacks, differentials, and captains for daily fantasy contests on FanTeam.

For gameweek 33 FanTeam have rolled out a 6-aside one-day tournament due to previous double gameweek's shenanigans. You must choose only 6 outfield players for your lineup with no more than 4 players from the same team. You do NOT get to pick a goalie. Your total budget is 60 million.

You must not have more than 5 players in each position and are not required to have players in each line. This can lead to formations such as 0-5-1, 5-0-1, 3-2-1, 1-3-2 etc.

General thoughts

Newcastle playing hosts to Crystal Palace is hard to call, as teams are evenly matched. Crystal Palace are playing their 3rd game in 8 days though.

Both Bournemouth and Burnley still have everything to play for, with the hosts being slight favorites. Expect Burnley to dig in and fight for Premier League survival.

Leicester's away fixture at Huddersfield definitely looks more obliging with the hosts being clear favorites.

Defensive Stacks

Great odds

Leicester have the best chance (38,8%) to keep a clean sheet despite playing away. Huddersfield are already relegated and have nothing to play for and no one to score, really. In their last 4 home games, the Terriers have mustered only 4,27 xG and 6 big chances created. Not very intimidating for Leicester’s sturdy defense that will welcome Maguire back.

With less than an expected goal (3,60 xGC) conceded in their last 4 away games, they are clear favorites to keep a clean sheet. The stack price is in mid-range (8,0-9,2 mln).

Maguire (8,5), Chilwell (8,8), Pereira (9,2) are also a big attacking threat.

Chilwell and Pereira are 2nd and 3rd in team respectively in chances created - 36 and 30. Pereira has more big chances created though, 8 to Chilwell’s 2.

Maguire leads defenders in shots (28) and header attempts (16).

Value Play

It looks like Rafa Benitez pulled off yet another solid season with a Championship-quality squad. Newcastle’s have won their last 5 home games, keeping their goal safe on three occasions against Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Burnley. Oh yeah, and they beat Manchester City.

4,30 xGC in their last 4 home outings, only 4 big chances and 28 shots in the box conceded, Newcastle look good even against a solid Crystal Palace team.

The fact that the visitors will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days and Newcastle defenders laughable price further strengthens their fantasy appeal. Playing a couple of these guys at the back will free up some funds for pricier Leicester and Bournemouth attackers.

Yedlin (6,3) sits 3rd in the team for chances created (27), Shar (6,5) leads the defenders in shots (21, 13 in the box) and big chances (3). He might not be fit to start yet following a concussion while on international duty, though.  

Differential

You might be surprised, but we are going to recommend Huddersfield here. Yes, they can not score but have been as solid as the rock-bottom team can be at home. Leicester might get complacent here and there are not many differential options in a slate with just 6 teams anyways.

Smith (4,3) is dirt cheap and projected to start. Lowe (5,6) played out of position as a left midfielder in the last game. He had 3 shots (2 in the box) and 1 chance created, making a case for another start in this position. Most players will avoid Huddersfield players, why not risk it?

Captains

Best Bet

Vardy (11,5)

With 11 shots, 2,43 xGI, 5 big chances and 4 goals in his last 4 games, he is our safe captain pick for this week. Vardy certainly has his shooting boots on, is playing against the league’s worst side and is on penalties. Leicester have 6,32 xG in their last 4 away games.

Stacks well with Maddison (11,3) - 14 chances created, 1,55xGI *

Barnes (10,0) - 0,96 xGI, 5 shots in the box

Tielemans - 10 shots (3 in the box), 1,37xGI

*stats for given last 4 games.

Differential

Almiron (7,9)

In his last 4 home games, the Paraguayan has 10 shots (5 in the box), 2 big chances, 8 chances created (leads team) 1,57xGI. His numbers are slightly inferior to his inform teammates - Rondon 2,19xGI and Perez 2,06 xGI, but while many people will be looking in their direction, we are considering giving Almiron the armband.

He has been unlucky not to score or assist in the last 4, and the game against Crystal Palace might be his finest hour. He will also get 1 point as a midfielder if Newcastle keep a clean sheet (31%).

Stacks well with Rondon (8,4), Perez (8,2).


xG = expected goals. The model works by assigning a value to a shot that is taken based on the likelihood of it being scored.
xA = expected assists measures the likelihood that a pass will be a primary assist. The model is based on the finishing location of the pass, what type of pass it was and a variety of other factors.
xGI = expected goals involvement equals xG+xA.


Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with more than 2500 tournaments played and a 30%+ ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As Head of Content at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.

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