2 years ago
|Home||Away||Odds to win||O/U|
|Valladolid||Mallorca||Valladolid win 52%||2.0|
|Villarreal||Athletic||Villarreal win 51%||2.5|
|Osasuna||Alaves||Osasuna win 48%||2.0|
|Leganes||Eibar||Leganes win 44%||2.0|
|Celta||Getafe||Celta win 40%||2.0|
|Granada||Real Sociedad||Real Sociedad win 40%||2.0|
Villarreal is the only team besides Valladolid in the slate that has a chance of winning more than 50%, according to the bookies. They look consistent at home this season with 3 wins and 3 draws in 6 games, averaging 3 goals scored.
So the main emphasis should be made on attackers who are among the leaders of top scorers list and best xG performers of the league as well.
Gerard Moreno played only 23 minutes during the midweek so he is a sure starter against Athletic. Moreno is an overall La Liga leader in xG+xA (5.32+4.07 in 11 games)
Santi Cazorla was also benched against Eibar on Thursday. So he is expected to help Gerard from the very beginning on Sunday.
As for in-form striker Karl-Toko Ekambi, the Cameroonian played 255 minutes in the last 3 games and is likely to be rested on Gameweek 12. Therefore, I would recommend to pay attention to a defensive cover as Basques have a poor record of away games scoring only 2 times in 5 encounters on the road. Consider Xavi Quintilla (1.26 xA) or Pau Torres (1.09 xG+0.72 xA).
I see Sociedad players as the most underestimated picks for this game week.
Granada sits in the third place of the championship but performs poorly in home encounters. You could admit that they have 4 consecutive wins, including a victory over Barca but underlying stats show that they should have had 7.27 xP instead of 12 after all home battles.
Sociedad, on the contrary, is tied at first in points gained on the road. However, expected points show a little worse picture for Basques (7th place).
Oyarzabal is the key pillar for the attacking processes of Sociedad. He spent the whole game at Anoeta on Wednesday but seems to be indispensable this season, having left the pitch only when the outcome of the match was clear.
I do not expect more than 1 goal from Granada as they are third worst team in home games(1.00 xg/90). It is sensible to have a look at Sociedad defenders, namely Nacho Monreal. He is the most dangerous one (1.17 xG in 8 games, 1 goal). He has 5 shots in the last 3 games.
Getafe tops the La Liga table if we take into account only matches in October. After a shaky start, Bordalas' side has gathered momentum sitting in the tenth place, 3 points behind the Europa League zone.
Celta didn't score more than once this season, at the same time Getafe is not very consistent at the back. They registered only 1 clean sheet this season. That's why picking Getafe defenders is not a reasonable idea, except Marc Cucurella who is, as usual, going to be an out-of-position midfielder.
As for attacking picks, I would recommend Jorge Molina. Both Jaime Mata and Angel Rodriguez spent 90 minutes against Granada. One of them for sure will be replaced by Molina.
4.37 xG (8) + 2.30 xA (18), Sociedad leader and his team will try to bounce back after a home upset to Levante.
Fabian Orellana (Eibar, 6.4) — scored one-third of all Eibar goals this season. More to that, he has 3 assists.
Mohammed Salisu (Valladolid, 5.5) — Valladolid's defense is rather tempting pick against Mallorca. Salisu is the sixth in the team in xG.
Darwin Machis (Granada, 6.3) — 2nd in xG + xA in the team that is unexpectedly high in the table.
Sports fan and fantasy sports fanatic. Loves statistics and tries to find the right way of applying it in fantasy sports. Winner of Fanteam Premier League Experience Tournament in 2018.