2 years ago
|Home||Away||Odds to win||O/U|
|Real Sociedad||Leganes||Real Sociedad win 59%||2.0|
|Alaves||Valladolid||Alaves win 41%||2.5|
|Valencia||Granada||Valencia win 62%||2.5|
|Eibar||Real Madrid||Real Madrid win 64%||3.0|
|Barcelona||Celta||Barcelona win 85%||3.5|
|Mallorca||Villarreal||Villarreal win 46%||2.5|
|Athletic||Levante||Athletic win 60%||2.5|
|Atletico||Espanyol||Atletico win 69%||2.0|
|Getafe||Osasuna||Getafe win 52%||2.0|
|Betis||Sevilla||Sevilla win 47%||2.5|
Barcelona remains the only team that has kept a perferct record at home so far with 21 goals scored in 5 games. Underlying stats are not that great (4th place in both xG and xP in home games), but with 85% chances to win you have no right to walk past Blaugrana picks.
Luis Suarez suffered an injury a week ago so the Uruguayan is sidelined for about two weeks. That makes Messi and Griezmann uncontested picks for your Barcelona attacking stack.
The third attacking spot could be taken by either Ansu Fati or Ousmane Dembele. Both picks are quite dangerous, to my mind. If you pick the young Spaniard and he doesn't make the starting XI, the Safety Net won't save you as he is the cheapest forward on the roster. If the same situation happens to Dembele, you will lose 2.3 mln - the difference between the Frenchman and Frenkie de Jong.
As for defense, Barcelona concedes 1.24 xGA/90 at home on average. The main defensive pick of the previous years Jordi Alba is now unavailable due to injury. According to stats, the most dangerous defender from a goal-scoring perspective is Gerard Piquet (only 0.95 xG in 10 matches). I doubt he is worth the investment (10,1) when compared to other La Liga defenders.
There are a lot of teams that have approximately equal chances to win this week — around 60%. Among them, I see Sociedad players as the most underestimated picks in the slate.
Sociedad lost two home games to Getafe and Levante but are sitting in the 2nd place in terms of defensive quality at home. Only Atletico Madrid prevails in this characteristic. Therefore, I recommend composing a defensive stack out of Basques, taking into account that prices for their defenders are below average.
Nacho Monreal stands out among those picks as the former Gunner has strong attacking figures (1.17 xG in 9 games, 1 goal). He has taken 5 shots in the last 4 games.
Oyarzabal remains the one who constructs all attacks for Sociedad and sometimes finishes them himself. Without international duty obligations this year, Mikel will surely play a full-time match and has a good chance of getting a haul for your team.
Stats for the last 5 games since the beginning of October show deplorable results for Alaves. The team has had the weakest defense in the league during this period and is the second-worst in expected points. At the same time, Valladolid show themselves as solid performers having gained 8 points and not losing to Atletico and Athletic on the road.
Masip has been the #1 goalkeeper for Valladolid in the recent years. He is well-known for penalty saves but he makes saves from open play as well. This season he has already had 35 of them, almost 3 per game.
To get an attacking exposure, you have to pay attention to Oscar Plano. He tops the team ranking in both xG (3.23) and xA (1.63).
The absolute leader of xG+xA ranking in the league for the last 5 games. The home encounter against outsiders of La Liga and a goalless draw against Slavia on Tuesday are additional factors in favor of the Argentinian.
The Frenchman tops the xG rankings and follows Messi if we take into account only games since October. 7 goals and 3 assists prove that Karim is the true attacking star of Madrid for the second consecutive year.
Ruben Garcia (Osasuna, 4.8) — ridiculously low priced for a person who has 3+1 in the last 3 games. Only Messi has been more efficient than Ruben in the last 3 weeks.
Mohammed Salisu (Valladolid, 4.4) — a frequent visitor in this part of the preview. Pick him if you believe in the Valladolid's defense as much as I do.
Lee Kang-in (Valencia, 5.9) — with Guedes and Cheryshev recovering from injuries, he and Soler are fighting for the vacant spot. I believe the Korean has a slightly better chance to win the battle.
Sports fan and fantasy sports fanatic. Loves statistics and tries to find the right way of applying it in fantasy sports. Winner of Fanteam Premier League Experience Tournament in 2018.