Hockey

1 year ago

NHL Spotlight Stacks: December 3

The daily fantasy king of Europe Khan is back with a word of wisdom for today's slate. His deep analysis, line matchups, and advanced data will surely help both newbie and experienced players alike. Read on to learn from the best and use these pro tips to your advantage playing on FanTeam and Bethard

 

Vancouver - 1

Miller (12.9) - Pettersson (11.7) - Boeser (12.1)

The Vancouver Canucks are the highest favorite among all teams of tonight's slate according to the bookies, and there is no surprise that their top line is my favourite option to target.

Elias Pettersson leads this line with 31 points in 28 games (9 multi-point games included), while his partners J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser are not far behind from him: 28 and 25 points to their names respectively. This line is totally correlated as well, which makes their upside very high.

The Canucks are facing a weak Ottawa team, who lost 4 games in a row, giving up 13 goals in the process. No need to get tricky here, just lock the Canucks in.


Montreal - 1

Tatar (10.6) - Danault (9.6) - Gallagher (12.2)

This line will certainly see a low ownership tonight. The matchup against the New York Islanders is presumingly tough, especially if we look at the current standings of both teams, but underlying numbers say the opposite.

Over the last month, the Islanders sit in the bottom-5 in terms of xGA/60 (2.5), while their HDCA/60 (13.01) is the second-worst in the league. Below you can see that the Islanders are not as good as they are thought to be:

Tatar leads the Canadiens with 24 points in 27 games, while Danault and Gallagher racked slightly inferior19 points this season. Danault isn't involved in Montreal's power play, and this is one of the reasons why I am inclined to using the Tatar - Gallagher - Weber stack.

What disappoints me here is that the Canadiens' top line doesn't play heavy minutes. Given the fact that it is the second back-to-back game for the Islanders, we can expect a big night from Tatar and co.
 

Dallas - 1

Benn (10.5) - Seguin (12.4) - Radulov (11.4)

Every time when I see Benn, Seguin, and Radulov playing together, I automatically pick them into my lineups. The players' current form shouldn't mislead you, as them playing together is a completely different story. 

The matchup against the Winnipeg Jets is favorable enough. The Jets are located in the bottom-7 in terms of xGA/60 (2.32) and in the bottom-5 in terms of HDCA/60 (11.74) over the last month. Additionally, Winnipeg is struggling with plenty of injuries, especially in defense.

Defenseman John Klingberg is also a great play here since Winnipeg's PK% rate is very low (75.8). You can stack Klingberg with Seguin and either Benn or Radulov. 
 

Defensemen of the slate

Shea Weber (13.5)

Weber is averaging sky-high 3 shots on goal per game this season and picked up 8 goals and 16 assists in 27 games played. His individual xG rate (5.05) is the second-highest among all defensemen in the NHL, trailing only Dougie Hamilton.

Look out for Weber to easily get on the scoresheet against the New York Islanders struggling defensively.

Roman Josi (13.2)

My second defensive option should also be considered as a safe one. Josi is currently producing at a point-per-game pace (7 goals and 17 assists in 26 games), and only Hamilton shoots more than him among the NHL's defensemen (87 shots, 4.97 ixG). 

Tampa Bay is not an easy opponent, but what particularly boosts Josi's appeal is the Lightning's PK — only 78% this season.

 

  • SCF/60: Scoring chances for per 60
  • SCA/60: Scoring chances allowed per 60
  • HDCF/60: High danger chances for per 60
  • HDCA/60: High danger chances allowed per 60
  • xGF/60: Expected goals for per 60
  • xGA/60: Expected goals allowed per 60
Khan
Author

Khan

Khan, a Ph.D. student in Economics, loves studying advanced sports analytics and using it to his advantage in DFS. Having started to play daily fantasy sports in 2017, he currently has a net profit of over 70000 euros. Sits in the top-5 of DFS players in Europe, finished 3rd in FanTeam's WCOFF 2018 and WCOFF 2020.

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