Hockey

1 month ago

NHL Spotlight Stacks: January 16

The daily fantasy king of Europe Khan is back with a word of wisdom for today's slate. His deep analysis, line matchups, and advanced data will surely help both newbie and experienced players alike. Read on to learn from the best and use these pro tips to your advantage playing on FanTeam and Bethard
 

Florida – 1

Huberdeau (12.1) – Barkov (11.7) – Dadonov (10.7)

The Panthers’ top line combined for 10 points in the last 2 games, and I’m expecting them staying hot tonight against the weak Los Angeles team. Huberdeau is ranked 7th in the NHL scoring leaderboard, having accumulated 61 points in 45 games. Barkov is 14th, with 49 points to his name. Dadonov’ numbers are not so impressive, and you can drop him in favor to defenseman Yandle.

Los Angeles Kings have been playing some decent hockey of late, but that didn’t help them much as they have lost 5 of their 6 last games. The team is exploitable on the road and in the penalty kill department as well (75.4% during this season). Given that the Kings also struggle with poor goaltending, the Panthers’ top line is certainly an elite play.

 

Washington – PP1

Ovechkin (14.7) – Backstrom (10.8) – Carlson (12.6)

The Capitals lost to the New Jersey Devils in their recent meeting somewhat surprisingly, and tonight is a great opportunity for Washington to turn the tables. Entering the game with 44 points in 47 games this season, Ovechkin is ready for his second hat-trick of the season. Goals from his 'office' on the power play still keep coming. Including the NHL defensemen scoring leader John Carlson (56 points this season) in Washington stack instead of Tom Wilson seems like an obvious play.  

Over the last month, the New Jersey Devils are the third-worst team of the league in regard to xGA/60 (2.68), while their HDCA/60 (12.55) is the fourth-worst. Also, the Devils' are among the worst goalies in the NHL, as MacKenzie Blackwood is still injured.

 

Vegas – 1

Marchessault (11.2) – Karlsson (10.0) – Smith (10.7)

This is my favorite contrarian stack of the slate. I’m expecting the ownership of this line to be ultra-low, but I see the big-time upside for this line. All of the three skaters of Vegas-1 are producing at around 0.7 point-per-game pace this season. 0.974 PDO of this line suggests that the line is underperforming. This line is correlated on the power play as well.

The matchup against Ottawa is a good one. The Senators sit in the bottom-10 of the league in terms of xGA/60 (2.51) and HDCA/60 (12.42) over the last month. Their 45 CF% is ranked 30th over that period.

 

Defensemen of the slate

Roman Josi (13.8)

Josi picked up 46 points in 45 games played, which makes him the best defenseman of the slate after John Carlson. Josi is averaging more than 3 SoG per game and 25+ minutes of ice time this season. He has been pointless in the previous 2 games, and tonight’s game against a weak Anaheim team looks like a perfect spot to bounce back.

 

Zach Werenski (11.6)

Werenski is your defensive contrarian option of the slate. Having already scored 15 goals in 40 games of the season, Werenski is also bound to end his 3-game pointless streak. The matchup against Carolina may seem risky, but the Canes’ defense has actually deteriorated of late. Over the last month, Carolina is the fifth-worst team in regard to HDCA/60 (12.46) and the eighth-worst in xGA/60 (2.54). The Canes’ PK% rate has also been abysmal in that period – only 71.7%. This bodes well for Werenski, who quarterbacks the Jackets’ top power-play unit.

 

CF% - Corsi For Percentage. This is the ratio that shows the percentage of shot attempts created by a team relative to the total shot attempts in a game during 5-on-5 situations.

HDCA/60 - High danger chances against per 60 minutes. 

xGA/60 - Expected goals against per 60 minutes.

PDO - a sum of a team’s (line's) shooting percentage and it’s save percentageThe purpose of PDO is to determine if a team (line) has either been lucky or unlucky in the previous contests.

Khan
Author

Khan

Khan, a Ph.D. student in Economics, loves studying advanced sports analytics and using it to his advantage in DFS. Having started to play daily fantasy sports in 2017, he currently has a net profit of over 30000 euros. Sits in the top-3 of DFS-hockey players in Europe, finished 3rd in FanTeam's World Championship of Fantasy Football 2018.