Hockey

2 years ago

NHL Spotlight Stacks: November 14

One of the best daily fantasy hockey player Khan is back with a word of wisdom for today's slate. His deep analysis, line matchups, and advanced data will surely help both newbie and experienced players alike. Read on to learn from the best and use these pro tips to your advantage playing on FanTeam and Bethard

 

Florida - 1

Huberdeau (12.4) - Barkov (12.2) - Dadonov (11.2)

The Florida Panthers' top line has already combined for 64 points in 18 games and nothing seems to stop them. Tonight they have a juicy matchup on home ice against the defensively weak Winnipeg Jets team.

The Jets own the third-worst 2.45 xGA/60 in the league when 5 on 5, and the fourth-worst 11.5 HDCA/60 when 5 on 5 as well. 

To make things even worse, Winnipeg has a terrible 72.5 PK% rate (only Detroit and Los Angeles have been worse this season), and given the fact all three the Panthers' top line skaters play on the same power-play unit, it gives them extremely high upside on paper.

 

Tampa Bay - 1 

Johnson (9.4) - Point (11.5) - Kucherov (12.8)

It's disappointing from DFS perspective not to see Kucherov and Stamkos playing together, but I see enough potential for the current Bolts' top line to flourish. 

Kucherov and Point is an elite combination nonetheless, both of them having a multi-point upside almost every night. They have been relatively cold at the start of the season (still producing at a point-per-game pace, however), but I expect them bouncing back in the near future.

Tonight they host the New York Rangers team which sits dead last in terms of all advanced defensive metrics: the league-worst 2.87 xGA/60, the league-worst 32.7 SCA/60, and the league-worst 14.1 HDCA/60.

Here you can see how bad the Rangers actually are:


Dropping Johnson and using a 2+1 stack, where Victor Hedman is your defensive option, is an obvious play as well.

 

Edmonton - 1

Draisaitl (13.1) - McDavid (13.0) - Kassian (8.7)

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are the scoring leaders of the entire NHL (36 and 31 points respectively), and fading them against the banged-up Colorado Avalanche is not what you want to do. 

Despite the Avalanche sitting in the third place in the Western Conference, their 1.037 PDO rate (which is the league-highest) indicates that they are the luckiest team in the NHL at this stage of the season:

Actually, Colorado's defensive numbers do not impress at all: the Avalanche is located in the bottom-10 in terms of xGA/60 (2.32) and SCA/60 (27.2), whereas their 33.9 SA/60 rate is the third-worst in the league.

Using the Draisaitl - McDavid - Klefbom stack is more preferable to me, but both options are certainly in play.

 

Defensemen of the slate

Victor Hedman (11.2)

The Lightning is expected to score the highest amount of goals among the teams of this slate, and thus my number one choice in this category — Victor Hedman.

Hedman quarterbacks Tampa Bay's top power-play unit and is locked to see heavy minutes of ice time. He already has 11 points to  his name in 13 games played and should be able to increase his record against the leaky Rangers' defense.

 

Erik Karlsson (11.7)

Fresh off a three-point game against Edmonton, Karlsson is going to face the Anaheim Ducks, who lost 4 games in a row, conceding 4.25 goals on average in the process.

Karlsson has solid 14 points in 18 games of this season, while having just a 3.45% shooting percentage, so some positive regression is headed his way. The Ducks' unimpressive 79.7 PK% could help to accelerate this process. 


  • SCF/60: Scoring chances for per 60
  • SCA/60: Scoring chances allowed per 60
  • SA/60: Shots allowed per 60
  • HDCF/60: High danger chances for per 60
  • HDCA/60: High danger chances allowed per 60
  • xGF/60: Expected goals for per 60
  • xGA/60: Expected goals allowed per 60
  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that resulted in goals
  • PDO: The sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage.
Khan
Author

Khan

Khan, a Ph.D. student in Economics, loves studying advanced sports analytics and using it to his advantage in DFS. Having started to play daily fantasy sports in 2017, he currently has a net profit of over 70000 euros. Sits in the top-5 of DFS players in Europe, finished 3rd in FanTeam's WCOFF 2018 and WCOFF 2020.

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