Hockey

2 years ago

NHL Spotlight Stacks: November 7

We are thrilled to welcome our hockey expert back! Khan  is one of the top daily fantasy players in Europe sitting in the top-6 of most profitable players of all time with nearly €30k in profits. He is ranked 2nd in hockey earnings at the time of writing with €12k. His deep analysis of the slate, line matchups, and advanced data will surely help both newbie and experienced players alike. Read on to learn from the best and use these pro tips to your advantage playing on FanTeam and Bethard

 

Florida – 1

Huberdeau (11.9) - Barkov (11.4) - Dadonov (10.5)

The Florida Panthers' top line consisting of Jonathan Huberdeau (9 goals and 9 assists in 14 games), Aleksander Barkov (2+15) and Evgenii Dadonov (6+5) has been dominant at the start of the season and I don't see them slowing down in the game against the Washington Capitals which is predicted to be high scoring.

I expect this line to be under-owned tonight. Based on my observations, players on FanTeam generally try to avoid picking against Washington, presuming the matchups against this team are always tough. 

Actually, this is not true, as the Capitals play rather poor defensively. They sit in the bottom-10 of the league in terms of xGA/60 when 5 on 5 and in the bottom-6 in terms of HDCA/60 when 5 on 5.

Given that the Panthers' top line is also well correlated, it gives them an elite upside tonight.

 

Carolina – 2

Niederreiter (9.8) - Staal (10.2) - Teravainen (11.5)

The Carolina Hurricanes team is the biggest favorite of the slate, and we obviously should make a case for them as well. Both Carolina's top lines are certainly in play, but I'd rather go for the second line and thus play more contrarian.

Despite the Canes' top line of Aho and Svechnikov completely outscoring the second line as of late, the underlying data tells us that the difference between these two lines is not as big as we might have thought.

The Svechnikov - Aho - Foegele line possesses 37.2 SCF/60 and 18.6 HDCF/60 this season, while the line of Niederreiter, Staal, and Teravainen has pretty close numbers: 33,3 SCF/60 and 16.6 HDCF/60. The 3.45 On-ice Sh% of this line tells us that the reason for them not producing a lot was just bad luck (in comparison, the top line has 12.9 On-ice Sh%), and the goals for this line should come sooner rather than later.

The matchup against the unimpressive New York Rangers (the league-worst 2.88 xGA/60 at 5/5) bodes well for that.

The only disappointing thing for the Canes' second line is that they don't play on the same power-play unit. So, if you are obsessed with the correlation, you should use Niederreiter - Staal - Gardiner and Niederreiter - Teravainen - Hamilton (more preferable) stacks as well.

 

Vancouver – 1

Miller (12.5) - Pettersson (11.0) - Boeser (11.6)

The Canucks' top line is one of the best lines in the entire NHL at the start of the season having accumulated 52 points in 15 games, while the center of this line Elias Pettersson is currently ranked 6th in the NHL scoring leaderboard.

Tonight they will face Chicago Blackhawks, who are literally a defensive disaster. The Blackhawks have the second-worst 2.66 xGA/60, the second-worst 29.1 SCA/60, and the second-worst 13.9 HDCA/60 in the league this season. As you can see, the matchup is very intriguing.

I think this line will also be under-owned tonight on FanTeam. The main reason for this is them playing on the road, and the fact they didn't do much in the previous game. These factors do not scare me at all, though.

Also, if you want to use a 2+1 stack here and get Quinn Hughes as a D-man, you should drop Miller, despite him being the most expensive of the trio. This doesn't necessarily mean that he has the highest upside, as he is surely badly priced on FanTeam.

 

Defensemen of the slate

 

Mark Giordano (12.7)

I haven't mentioned the Calgary Flames team yet in this article, focusing more on the contrarian options. Their top line is still perhaps the top overall play tonight, and fading them entirely might be costly. That's why I've chosen Mark Giordano as my top D-man of the slate. This gives me the Flames exposure since Giordano is on ice in all situations and is unlikely to come up pointless.

He is averaging 2.6 shots on goal this season and has solid 4 goals and 8 assists to his name. Facing the New Jersey team with the abysmal 75.5 PK% rate should help him get on the scoresheet tonight.

Drew Doughty (10.9)

And here is your contrarian defensive option. I should say that I personally love picking this guy and I think he is underestimated in DFS due to playing for a bad team. However, Doughty started the season well registering 10 points in 15 games.

His role in the Los Angeles Kings is huge, and his minutes in the last 3 games are shocking (28 minutes on average). Tonight he will play against the Ottawa team struggling on defense (the fourth-worst 2.4 xGA/60, the third-worst 28.9 SCA/60 and the fourth-worst 11.3 HDCA/60).


  • SCF/60: Scoring chances for per 60
  • SCA/60: Scoring chances allowed per 60
  • HDCF/60: High danger chances for per 60
  • HDCA/60: High danger chances allowed per 60
  • xGF/60: Expected goals for per 60
  • xGA/60: Expected goals allowed per 60
  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that resulted in goals
     

Khan
Author

Khan

Khan, a Ph.D. student in Economics, loves studying advanced sports analytics and using it to his advantage in DFS. Having started to play daily fantasy sports in 2017, he currently has a net profit of over 70000 euros. Sits in the top-5 of DFS players in Europe, finished 3rd in FanTeam's WCOFF 2018 and WCOFF 2020.

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