2 years ago
The Florida Panthers' top line has been absolutely on fire as of late. Since March 1 Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau and Evgenii Dadonov combined for enormous 71 points in 17 games. Over the same time period, the Florida Panthers had the third-best goals per game (3.7 goals on average), and they lead the league with a 30.2 percent success rate on the power play.
A home matchup against the New York Islanders is favorable, as the Islanders sit in the bottom-10 in the league in terms of SA/60* (31.3), SCA/60** (28.1) and HDCA/60*** (11.3) over the last month. Additionally, the Islanders have a subpar 77.4% PK rate over the same time frame, and that bodes well for the correlated Panthers' top line to stay hot.
The Carolina Hurricanes are fighting with the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets for the final two playoff spots. Tonight the Canes will host a weak New Jersey Devils team and just can't afford to lose here. The top line of Carolina consisting of Sebastian Aho, Nino Niederreiter and Justin Williams has been dominant in terms of underlying numbers this season, posting 39.4 SF/60, 34 SCF/60 and 16.5 HDCF/60.
Tonight they should have no trouble finding the scoresheet, since the Devils possess an ugly 44.3 CF%**** over the last month, which ranks 29th in the league. The top of the Hurricanes is well-correlated too, which gives them elite upside in this plus matchup.
The San Jose Sharks' top line comprised of Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski and Timo Meier will surely fly under the radar tonight. Yet, their underlying numbers are very impressive (33.9 SF/60, 32.5 SCF/60 and 15.5 HDCF/60 this season) and this line just had a bad luck throughout the season according to their 0.95 PDO.
Tonight they have a juicy matchup on deck, facing the Edmonton Oilers team, which lost 4 games in a row, by giving up 17 goals in the process. Also, the Oilers are the fifth-worst team in terms of SCA/60 (30) and the fourth-worst in terms of HDCA/60 (12.7) over the last month.
To make things even worse, the Oilers are dead last in penalty kill department (69%) over the same time frame. Using defenseman Brent Burns (15.4) instead of Timo Meier also makes a sense, since Meier doesn't play in top PP unit.
In the slate where big names like Burns, Josi, Carlson are presented, you also have to select a D-man from a different price category in order to fit into the budget.
The Florida Panthers' defenseman is a nice value play given his upside and favorable matchup. Matheson racked 8 goals and 19 assists this season, while averaging 1.72 SoG and 22 minutes of ice time per game. Matheson is fresh off two consecutive 10+ FanTeam points games and playing alongside Barkov, Huberdeau and Dadonov will allow him to continue hitting the scoresheet.
* SA/60 – Shots against per 60 minutes
** SCA60 – Scoring chances against per 60 minutes
*** HDCA/60 – High danger chances against per 60 minutes
**** CF% – Shot attempts for / (shot attempts for+shot attempts against). Shows % of shot attempts taken by a team in the game.
Khan, a Ph.D. student in Economics, loves studying advanced sports analytics and using it to his advantage in DFS. Having started to play daily fantasy sports in 2017, he currently has a net profit of over 70000 euros. Sits in the top-5 of DFS players in Europe, finished 3rd in FanTeam's WCOFF 2018 and WCOFF 2020.