Hockey

2 years ago

NHL Spotlight Stacks: Tuesday 02.04

Nashville-1

The Buffalo Sabres have now lost 7 games in a row by giving up 4.6 GAA in the process, and playing against them seems like a no-brainer. The top line of the Nashville Predators, comprised of Viktor Arvidsson (13.1), Filip Forsberg (12.9) and Ryan Johansen (12.8), has one of the best underlying numbers in the NHL this season: 41 SF/60, 37 SCF/60, 17.8 HDCF/60. Arvidsson (33 goals in 55 games) and Forsberg (27 goals in 61 games) both are very efficient scorers this season, while Johansen has 12 goals and 50 assists in his 77 games. Unfortunately, this line is not correlated in PP properly, but the amount of opportunities at even strength should be enough for this line to have a big game tonight.

Pittsburgh-1

The Pittsburgh Penguins will face the Detroit Red Wings, who won 7 of their last 8 games, tonight. Despite a recent improvement in the results, the Red Wings had poor defensive numbers over the last month. Their CF%**** ranks 30th in the league, they have the league-worst SA/60 (35.8), the fourth-worst SCA/60 (30.7), and the third-worst HDCA/60 (13.1) over this time period. The most dangerous line of the Penguins now consists of Sidney Crosby (15.8), Jake Guentzel (14.5) and Bryan Rust (10.6). Crosby and Guentzel combined for 166 points this season with Rust a nice addition here. Together this line boasts a decent 35.8 SF/60, 30.7 SCF/60 and 13.8 HDCF/60 this season. Expect this line to take advantage of the Red Wings' horrific defensive numbers tonight.

Dallas-1

The Dallas Stars find themselves in a favorable matchup tonight against the Philadelphia Flyers, who lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding 19 goals in the process. The Dallas Stars' leading scorers Tyler Seguin (14.6) and Alexander Radulov (14.4) are now joined by Mattias Janmark (7.7). Seguin and Radulov have been electric when playing together this season, posting 36.1 SF/60, 33.5 SCF/60 and 16.1 HDCF/60. Janmark should be considered a value play here given his price tag, but I will be prioritizing defenseman John Klingberg (13.4) over him, since Janmark is not involved in PP. The Philadelphia Flyers also have the third-worst SA/60 (35), the third-worst SCA/60 (31.5) and the sixth-worst HDCA/60 (12.2) in the league over the last month.

DEFENDER OF THE SLATE

Roman Josi (13.1)

One of the NHL's defenseman leading scorers Roman Josi (15 goals and 40 assists) is now pointless in 8 consecutive games. But tonight's game against the Buffalo Sabres is a great spot for him to bounce back. Josi is the second-best defenseman in the league in terms of shots on goal (3.4 SoG on average). He is averaging more than 25 minutes per game this season, which gives him plenty of opportunities to produce. In addition, Josi's upside tonight is enhanced by the Sabres' abysmal 74.4 PK% over the last month.

* SF/60 – Shots for per 60 minutes 

** SCF/60 – Scoring chances for per 60 minutes

*** HDCF/60 – High danger chances for per 60 minutes 

**** CF% - Shot attempts for / (shot attempts for+shot attempts against). Shows % of shot attempts taken by a team in the game.

Khan
Author

Khan

Khan, a Ph.D. student in Economics, loves studying advanced sports analytics and using it to his advantage in DFS. Having started to play daily fantasy sports in 2017, he currently has a net profit of over 70000 euros. Sits in the top-5 of DFS players in Europe, finished 3rd in FanTeam's WCOFF 2018 and WCOFF 2020.

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