2 years ago
The Columbus Blue Jackets are making their push for a Wild Card position in the Eastern Conference and desperately need a win tonight in their home game against the New York Islanders. The Jackets's top line consisting of Artemi Panarin (13.2), Cam Atkinson (12.6) and PierreLuc Dubouis (12.2) has been cold as of late, but tonight they find themselves in a favorable spot to get things going again. The New York Islanders don't look like a good defensive team anymore, being the fifth-worst in the league in terms of SCA/60* (29.92) and the seventh-worst in terms of HDCA/60** (12.26) over the last month. Over the same time period, Panarin, Atkinson and Dubouis have a mediocre 4.62 On-Ice SH% and 0.976 PDO*** when playing together, while posting a decent 31.3 SF/60****, 38.1 SCF/60, 11.6 HDCF/60, and this means that the regression should be expected.
The Chicago Blackhawks are another team that hasn't lost hopes of the playoff zone and tonight they will visit the Arizona Coyotes. The Blackhawks have decided to concentrate their studs in one line recently, which now consists of Patrick Kane (15.0), Jonathan Toews (13.5) and Alex DeBrincat (13.2). Toews and DeBrincat have lit the lamp 70 times combined this season, while Kane leads the team with 41 goals and 61 assists in 74 games. This line plays on the top power play unit together which gives them elite upside and full-game correlation. The matchup against Arizona is a great one, as the Coyotes lost 5 games in a row. Also, the Coyotes are located in bottom-10 in the league in terms of SA/60 (31), SCA/60 (27.4) and HDCA/60 (12.2) over the last month.
The Vancouver Canucks will host the Anaheim Ducks tonight, in a game no one but DFS players will be interested in. The so-called "the second line" of the Canucks is of the biggest interest here, as it involves two the most productive players of the team - Elias Pettersson (27 goals and 37 assists in 65 games) and Brock Boeser (25 goals and 28 assists in 64 games). Pettersson and Boeser have been dynamic when playing together this season, while their new linemate Sven Baertschi (8 goals and 5 assists in 23 games) makes this line pretty appealing in terms of salary savings. The matchup against the Ducks is favorable, given that they have been struggling as of late in HDCA/60 department, being the fourth-worst (12.9) team over the last month. Also, the Ducks possess an ugly 73.2% penalty kill rate over the same time frame.
While we expect the positive regression from the Jackets' top line, the same can be said about their best defenseman - Seth Jones, who is pointless in his last four games. Despite a little slowdown, Jones has a solid record this season: 9 goals and 33 assists in 68 games, 2.47 shots on goal on average. Jones plays on power play with Panarin and Atkinson, and is averaging almost 26 minutes per game this season which should allow him lots of opportunities to get on the scoresheet tonight.
* SCA/60 - Scoring chances against per 60 minutes
** HDCA/60 - High danger chances against per 60 minutes
*** PDO - the sum of a team’s (line’s) shooting percentage and its save percentage. PDO is based on the theory that most teams will ultimately regress toward a sum of 100, is often viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team (line) is.
**** SF/60 - Shots for per 60 minutes
Khan, a Ph.D. student in Economics, loves studying advanced sports analytics and using it to his advantage in DFS. Having started to play daily fantasy sports in 2017, he currently has a net profit of over 70000 euros. Sits in the top-5 of DFS players in Europe, finished 3rd in FanTeam's WCOFF 2018 and WCOFF 2020.