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3 weeks ago

FanTeam's WCOFF 2019 Round 1 Analysis

There have been 116 entries into the $1050 buy-in, 100k guaranteed WCOFF. There are some relatively inexperienced managers flying high in the top-20, and what is more surprising, a relatively unknown player leading the pack after round 1. Read on to find out about ownership percentages, captaincy choices, leader's team breakdown, and some bold predictions as to who will be crowned champion after round 2.

Last year’s Finals were limited to 30 entries with no option of direct buy-in. Competition in this year’s tournament with €30000 for first place is even fiercer - most of the teams belong to Europe’s finest DFS players with thousands of tournaments played. That includes two of our own —DraftGym authors, khan and CRyl, have mixed feelings about Round 1, which we will get to in due time. 

Concerning Ownership % 

Ownership % displayed on FanTeam’s screenshots are skewed. The numbers in this article reflect the real ownership and captaincy % for round 1. 

Yes, we have manually calculated ownership percentages for several players to be sure. Twice.

I believe FanTeam displays these numbers because of the 2-week nature of the tournament. It automatically divides ownership and captaincy number by 2, as if the same teams were entered twice in game weeks 20 and 21.

The Leader

Fscottl’s story represents what a couple of euros can be transformed into. He won the one-game €2,75 buy-in satellite (NEW-MCI) in late November. Having two  €55 step-2 satellite tickets, he managed to convert one of those into a WCOFF seat worth €1050. He edged the runner-up by just 1 point in that memorable tournament. 

Fscottls started playing on FanTeam one month ago in November 2019. Having entered his teams into daily fantasy contests just 201 times, the €1050 ticket has been his biggest win so far.

Despite not having played much on Fanteam before, he created a very balanced team for round 1. He tried to have all the bases covered with his only entry in the tournament, squeezing some of the heavy-hitters with favorable games into his lineup. 

 

Mane (14,4 mln.), DeBryune (13,9), and Aguero (13,3) made the chalk backbone of his team. Aguero was indeed one of the safest captain choices —18,1% of the WCOFF captained him (36% total ownership, 4th most owned player).

Chalk  — a player that many mangers will probably pick. An obvious play in the round. 

Martial (9,4, 39% ownership, 3rd most owned player) and Rashford (9,8, 30% ownership) were probably deemed good value by the manager. He got exactly what he was hoping for — one fantasy return per United player. 

Watford’s and Southampton’s defensive picks didn’t raise any eyebrows given affordable pricing plus a 30% and a 38% clean sheet chance respectively. 

Fscottl's remaining four picks were rather differential. He opted for two Brighton’s players at home to struggling Bournemouth. Duffy (6,9, 18% ownership) and Jahandakhsh (7,0, 12% ownership) delivered 7 and 9 fantasy points, respectively. 

The manager’s two other differential picks - Schar (5,6, 4% ownership) and Shelvey (6,6, 6% ownership) didn’t do so well against solid Everton but still combined for 8 fantasy points thanks to Schar’s goal. 

To sum up, a good combination of chalk, value plays, and differentials is what has given fscottl a two-point lead after Round 1. 

Other teams can be found here.

The Shadow Favorites

Despite this slender lead, I do not consider fscottl the favorite to win with all due respect. There are some big names right at his heels, and the most dangerous is the top-reg from Norway - gaffel.

His first team is sitting in 2nd while his other team is 3rd, only two points behind the leader. This gives him the liberty of choosing different captains in Round 2, which can decisive in the battle for first. 

Experience plays a huge role as well. Gaffel, siting 6th in FanTeam's all-time profit list, with 16k tournaments played and a 30k+ profit, is one of the best players in Europe. I am sure he will field aggressive teams in order to leave the chasing pack no chance. 

His captain choices were rather differential in Round 1. 

His team is the epitome of unconventional play. Gaffel was one of only three other managers picking Otamendi and the only one captaining him! Duffy (18%) was his vice-captaincy choice (another eyebrow raised here), which yielded 14 points in the end. He was a bit unlucky with Wan-Bissaka (8% ownership) getting a rare rest, but that was a calculated risk, as a cheaper-priced Young took his place because of the Safety Net rule.

Despite 2 players not making an appearance, gaffel’s team is sitting in 2nd thanks to differential picks of Sarr (9 points, 8% ownership), Mahrez (8 points, 13% ownership), and Bravo (7 points, 14% ownership).

He opted for DeBryune’s (31% ownership) captaincy along with 8% of the managers in his other team, differential players from Crystal Palace, Brighton, and Everton.  That, along with Firmino (9% ownership), was just enough to propel gaffel to 3rd.

As for our fellow author here at DraftGym, khan captained Salah (most owned player of the slate with 59%, captained by 36%)  in 2 of his 3 teams. Going for risky picks of Shaqiri (7% ownership) and Cancelo (3%) backfired, as neither of them ended up playing, but Zinchenko and Llana earned him 13 points, so nothing to complain about here.

That is rather unfortunate and leaves khan in 21st and 24th places, 11 and 14 points behind the leader, respectively. Had those players started, he might have found himself amongst the ones leading the pack now. Despite the difference, I believe he has a decent chance of cashing in. We at DraftGym have our fingers crossed. 

Other contenders, who I believe have a strong chance of finishing first, are experienced players:

  • Siggen, with two teams in the top-20 (15th, 8-point deficit, 20th, 11-point deficit),
  • awd2 (27th, 14-points, 30th, 15,5 points behind),
  • TTriBL (16th, 9,5 points behind, 34th, 17 points behind). 

I believe they will take calculated risks and might surprise with a nonorthodox captaincy having two teams to tinker with. 

The Chasing Pack

There are some relatively inexperienced players ranked high enough to make them capable of a surprise. These guys have only 1 team to pray for.

  • Henrikanaski (ranked 11th, 6 points behind, 207 tournaments played to date),
  • gipsy74 (less than 1000 tournaments played, sitting 6th, 2,5 points behind),
  • Dimasmol (ranked 13th, 8 points behind, 309 tournaments played to date).

Some very experienced players with only 1 team fighting for top places after the first round are:

  • LaLegiste (ranked 20th, 11 points behind, 4k+tournaments played to date, 37% ROI),
  • nevermind721 (ranked 26th, 13 points behind, 10k+tournaments played to date, 9k+ in profit),
  • smith1313 (ranked 29th, 15 points behind, ranked 8th in Fanteam’s all-time profit list).

Given the minuscule point margins, any player in the top-30 has a realistic chance of finishing first.

I have singled out the aforementioned players either based on their experience or selection choices made in Round 1.

Unfortunately, it didn’t go well for CRyl7, our LaLiga expert, whose only entry sits in 90th place. Newcastle and Chelsea's defensive stacks proved to be his downfall, despite Aguero’s captaincy netting 14 points along with DeBryune’s 13.

The only manager trying to emulate his real-life counterpart as far as a nickname is concerned, Lampard17, didn't do so well in the first round, with one of the lowest point tallies. He finds himself in the 110th place with 52 points.    

Top-20 after Round 1

Statistics for Round 1

Kindly provided by my fellow colleagues @mashulkin and @CRyl.

Most Owned Players

Name Team Pos Cost Own. % Capt. %
Salah Liv M 13,8 59% 36%
Sidibe Eve D 6,6 45% 0%
Martial Mun M 9,4 39% 1%
Aguero Mci F 13,3 36% 18%
Ings Sou F 9,8 36% 0%
Kane Tot F 12,5 33% 14%
Foster Wat G 6,0 32% 0%
De Bryune Mci M 13,9 31% 8%
Rashford Mun F 9,8 30% 1%
Maupay Bri F 10 28% 0%
Antonio Whu M 5,2 25% 0%
Alexander-Arnold Liv D 11,0 25% 0%
Bertrand Sou D 7,2 24% 0%
Deulofeu Wat M 10,6 24% 2%
Sterling Mci M 13,5 19% 5%
Young Mun D 6,9 19% 0%
Duffy Bha D 6,9 18% 0%
Richarlison Eve M 9,3 17% 0%
Bravo Mci G 8,2 14% 0%
Maguire Mun D 7,8 14% 0%

Mane (13%) didn't make it into the top-20 of the most selected players but was captained by 5% of the mangers.

Vardy (13% owned) was captained by 2,5%, Mahrez (13%) by 5%. 


Formation

Formation Own. % 
3-4-3 44%
3-5-2 14%
4-4-2 14%
4-3-3 11%
5-4-1 3%
4-5-1 4%
5-3-2 6%
5-2-3 3%

 

Defensive Stacks

Type of defensive stacks Own. % 
2+2 15%
2+1+1 16%
2+2+1 8%
3+2 1%
1+1+1+1 24%
2+2+2 2%
1+1+1+1+1 8%
2+2+1+1 10%
2+1+1+1 13%
2+1+1+1+1 1%
3+1 3%

 

Attacking Stacks

Team 2-player stack 3-player stack
Southampton 8% 0%
Man City 22% 5%
Man United 22% 0%
Watford 3% 0%
Chelsea 1% 0%
Brighton 9% 1%
Everton 2% 0%
Norwich 3% 0%
Tottenham 11% 3%
Liverpool 18% 3%
Leicester 3% 0%
West Ham 3% 0%
Newcastle 1% 0%
Arsenal  1% 0%
Bournemouth 2% 0%
We wish every single player the best of luck in Round 2. May the best manager win! Oh, and by the way — Happy New Year, folks!
 
Alexey Bobrov
Author

Alexey Bobrov

Alexey, also known as KJIIOIIIKA, has been playing daily fantasy football since 2015 on various European sites. Scratches his fantasy itch mostly on FanTeam, where he has a net profit of €6000+ with over 1300 tournaments played and a 50% ROI. FanTeam's 2018 World Championship of Fantasy Football finalist. As the chief editor at DraftGym, his mission is to help our young European fantasy community grow. A proud father of two, plays ice-hockey at the regional level, loves board games.